Health
In a pandemic, it’s more effective to move away from dense cities than to close borders.
The evolution of people’s infections as a function of population distribution asymmetry shows that the overall spread of the disease doubles when the boundaries from high-density to low-density areas are closed. Credit: Massimiliano Zanin
The pandemic is partially fueled by a network of buildings, crowded sidewalks, and a dense population of big cities where public transport drives people into more demanding conditions. This is in contrast to the situation in rural areas where there is a lot of available space per person.
Common sense is that it is safer to stay in a less crowded area during a pandemic. However, the mayor of a small town also wants to keep people safe. Migration The proportion of people from cities to rural towns raises concerns. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it was common to close borders and borders between states and regions. But does it really help?
In the paper published in chaos, Two researchers have decided to test this hypothesis and discover whether confinement and travel bans are really effective ways to limit the spread of pandemic diseases. Specifically, we focused on the movement of people from big cities to small cities and tested the results of this one-way movement.
“Instead of taking mobility, or lack of mobility, for granted, we decided to investigate how mobility changes affect proliferation,” says author Massimilianozanin. “The real answer lies in the signs of results. People always think it’s good to close the border. We almost always found it bad.”
The model used by the author is simplified and does not have many details that affect movement patterns or disease epidemics. However, the focus on changing population densities shows that travel bans can be less effective than migrating to less densely populated areas. As a result, the spread of the disease has decreased.
Zanin and collaborator David Papo placed a group of fictitious people in two places and assumed that their movements were a pattern of random movements. They used common SIR dynamics in epidemiological studies of disease movement. SIR stands for susceptibility, infection, and recovery and is a classification used to label groups in simulations and track the spread of the disease according to interactions.
They repeated the simulation 10,000 times to determine the result. disease If the migration is one-way, it will spread to people in two places, from dense cities to less dense towns. They also studied the effects of “displacement” to move healthy people out of crowded cities at the beginning of the pandemic.
The result is from a big city Small town Overall, for people in small towns, it can be a little less secure in a pandemic situation. This reduction in the density of densely populated areas is better for the majority of all people.
“Cooperation between various governments and government agencies Pandemic, And we need to consider the potential for small-scale sacrifices to reach global interests. ”
“Travel restrictions during a pandemic: a useful strategy?” chaos (2020). aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0028091
Provided by
American Institute of Physics
Quote: In a pandemic, November 17, 2020 is https://phys.org/news/2020-11-pandemic due to migration from a dense city (November 17, 2020), which is more effective than closing the border. Obtained from -migration-dense-cities-effective. html
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