Charts show pandemic developments in California and Bay Area County

November ended with a severe pandemic outlook in the Bay Area and California as a case of coronavirus and hospitalization. Keep climbing..

Looking at the progress of the pandemic as a whole, we see two obvious surges throughout the state and in most Bay Area counties. One is happening in the summer and the other is happening now. The state’s overall trajectory somewhat reflects the Bay Area’s trajectory, especially in the most populous counties.

However, looking at the monthly data for each county reveals some differences that reflect how pandemics are handled in each region and the unique challenges faced by each region.

We compared the curves in California with those in San Francisco and several other Bay Area counties. Santa Clara, the largest in the population. Marin is the only Bay Area county away from the most restrictive purple layer of the state’s four-layer reopening system.Sonoma in a purple layer Since its introduction In September; and Solano is currently registering the worst indicators in the Bay Area.

San Francisco has been strict about its policy since the pandemic began.It was a pioneer in the United States Shelter-in-place order And the duty of the mask. Even if the state’s assessment allowed the regulation to be relaxed sooner, it moved slowly to reopen the business. It was the only county in the Bay Area and the first metropolitan county in the state. Go to the least restrictive yellow resume layer,Mid-October.

Naveena Bobba, Deputy Director of Health, said the San Francisco summer surge was due to rolling back shelter orders and resuming more operations, resulting in movement and people interaction in San Francisco. I think that has increased. Health officials say that during the holiday season, a social gathering, especially in cold weather, helped boost the second surge.

By early November, the incident began to accelerate and authorities said Shutter indoor dining.. last month, The case has quadrupledAnd in just 10 days, San Francisco hospitalization doubled.Saturday Moved to the purple layer, And on Monday it joined the majority of California’s counties under a state-wide curfew affecting that category.

Santa Clara County is the most populous in the Bay Area and is home to 1.9 million people. It has a similar case curve as California, but with less rapid summer growth and slower case growth at the start of the pandemic. This may be due in part to the early migration of employees to telecommuting by many Silicon Valley tech companies.

However, the recent surge in cases and hospitalizations has been very rapid and has a very similar trajectory to the rest of the state. In the latest public health information on November 28, health officer Sarah Cody gave the county a harsh outlook. She reported 760 new cases, about 200 more than previously recorded. The 239 hospitalizations that day also broke the pandemic record.

“This pandemic is like a high-speed train, and we predict that if we don’t brake now, we’ll be derailed by about the third week of December,” she said.

If the current trend continues, Cody said the county would run out of regular hospital beds and have to rely on surge-capacity beds. A New order The measure, which came into effect on Monday, requires residents and travelers coming to the county from more than 150 miles away to quarantine for 14 days.

Marin is one of six counties in California Currently not in the purple resume layer.. But public health official Matt Willis said this week that he doesn’t think it will last any longer, given the current trajectory of the surge.

Cases and deaths in Marin County surged in July. This was primarily due to a serious outbreak in San Quentin State Prison that began on June 20, resulting in more than 2,000 infections and 15 deaths.

Due to the outbreak of prisons, a significant portion of the pandemic had more deaths than hospitalizations in Marin County. Although many cases required hospitalization, some patients were treated at facilities in other counties, but were counted as dead in Marin County. Also, in cases other than the outbreak of San Quentin, 84% of deaths were associated with skilled nursing and care facilities. Many of these patients did not die in the hospital, according to county spokesman Laine Hendricks.

According to Willis, only 5% of county cases require hospitalization, which is due to the health of Marin’s population and thorough testing efforts.

In addition to the prison outbreak, Willis said the summer surge had affected primarily key workers and the Latin community. Currently, the number of cases is gradually increasing, Spikes are very different Compared to other Bay Area counties and the entire state.

“The curve is steep with the case proliferating, and the slope is less steep than elsewhere,” Willis said.

Willis pointed out several possible reasons why the county has not risen as much as the rest of the Bay Area and states. They include a relatively wealthy elderly suburban population with the ability to work from home or not at all, and the freedom to make healthy choices.

However, this second surge is far more widespread within the community, primarily among white residents, and Willis said he expects the county to move to the purple layer in a week or two. I did.

Sonoma County has been in the purple layer since the state moved to a color-coded rating system three months ago. The graph shows that the county was unable to push the case curve down sufficiently after the summer and before it re-entered the uptrend in September. Deaths were highest in August and September, but hospitalizations increased more slowly than in California and the Bay Area.

Throughout the pandemic, Sonoma has struggled to cope with the disproportionate spread of the essential worker community, especially Latin Americans. Agriculture and tourism are the economic centers of the county, and Latin Americans make up the majority of the workers employed in these sectors.

Health official Sundari Mase previously said the county responded in a variety of ways, including strengthening testing in these communities and bilingual messaging. However, it was not until October that the county began major efforts to address inequality, including partnerships with community organizations and financial support for workers in need of quarantine.

Latins make up 27% of Sonoma’s population However, 70% of the coronavirus cases..That number has risen since then It was 54% in late October.. However, the county was able to reduce its state-adjusted case rate to 8.8 per 100,000 population, Mase said in a community briefing on November 25. She said it was 15 a little over a week ago. , Indicates that the county strategy is working.

“The number of cases has increased slightly, but it is far from the increase seen in other counties,” Mase said. “It’s possible because we’re purple and things aren’t really open like some of the other Bay Area counties. The timeline could be delayed, so next month We will see an even greater increase here. “

The trajectory of Solano County is very similar to the California pattern, especially in that case.

In late October, health officer Dr. Bella Matthias blamed the increase in cases. “Huge and inappropriate gathering” Includes a funeral attended by 300 people. Later, he said the incident stemmed from Halloween activities and smaller gatherings. Outbreaks continue in 160 community centers in the county, affecting more young people.

Currently, Solano County’s indicators are the worst in the Bay Area, with an adjusted case rate of 17.8 per 100,000 population and a positive test rate of 6.8%.

“The number of cases in Solano County continues to grow due to social gatherings,” said Jayleen Richards, public health manager at Solano County Health and Social Services. “That is, people get together and don’t follow the guidance … There are cases due to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday.”

Richards said authorities are concerned that the number of incidents will continue to increase as winter vacation approaches, especially as many events take place indoors and span generations. And as the graph shows, hospitalizations are increasing at an alarming rate. Hospitalization has almost doubled from 36 on November 16th to 68 on December 2nd in the past two weeks, according to Richards.

The hospital is still capable, but Richards said the county is discussing a surge planning protocol for the upcoming difficult week.