Colorado was able to see more cases of the English COVID strain

New predictions from public health researchers suggest that the COVID-19 mutant could become the dominant strain in Colorado in the coming weeks, which could lead to a spring surge and lead to hundreds of thousands of new cases. It suggests that there is.

According to state data, a relatively small number of cases of the variant (first identified in the United Kingdom) have been found in Colorado. Only 86 cases have been identified, a small number compared to the more widespread COVID infection. However, experts say that this variant (and other variants that have not yet been identified) is likely to be in circulation beyond what is known in Colorado.

“Clearly B.1.1.7 (British variant) is in circulation here, and other variants are probably here,” said John Samet, Dean of the Colorado School of Public Health and a member of the modeling team. Says. “Due to the limited data, there are no signs of a sharp rise as seen in the UK. I think we need to be concerned about the potential for variants (or other variants) to rise.”

“If the variants start to grow, there could be a spring surge in April,” Eric France, the state’s chief health officer, told reporters Thursday.

Modeling by Samet’s team predicts what it will look like. Researchers said the variant is considered to be more infectious and more deadly. These two factors can lead to more cases, as well as more hospitalizations and more deaths.

“Infection with the B117 mutant increases the risk of hospitalization and the risk of death by 1.4 times for those hospitalized at age 40,” they write. “Infection with the B117 mutant increases the risk of death in patients aged 40 and over who are not hospitalized by 1.7 times.”

They assumed that British variants would cause 50% of cases in March and 95% of cases in May, but “in reality, we don’t know how quickly the variant will spread in Colorado.”

The two biggest variables in modeling are the number of people who are vaccinated at a particular point and the number of people who remain socially distant and obscured. Hospitalizations can exceed 2,000 if behavior is slowed and varieties surge, which is about the same as the unprecedented number since autumn.

If there are many variants and only 40% of Colorado is vaccinated by early June, the state could have more than 2.4 million more cases than currently predicted. That number also presupposes that people will stop following poor public health measures and infection control.

The scenario will also result in 6,600 deaths.

Eighty percent of the states are vaccinated, but the increase is less if other conditions (low infection control, high mutant presence) are present. But it is still marked: 1.5 million cases, about 5,800 deaths.

Experts said Colorado is doing better than most states in tracking the spread of variants here, but limited data are observed, if not other British stocks. It means that it extends beyond what is.

“The number of people infected with the variants of concern is certainly higher than currently identified,” said Beth Carlton, another member of the modeling team. “In some states, we’re doing a better job looking for them, so it’s possible that we have a higher percentage of circulating variants.

Officials said the state would step up surveillance to monitor variants. So far, the state has sequenced all the random samples it finds, along with obvious genetic signs of the mutant. France, chief medical officer, said Thursday that the state would work with external laboratories to look for its genetic signs to monitor more cases. Experts said it was almost certain that there were more cases out there than identified.

So far, the only two variants identified in Colorado are California and UK strains. A South African variant has not yet been identified, and France said booster shots developed by Moderna to more effectively prevent serious illness from the strain will not be available for up to nine months. .. Still, he said it might not be needed-everything depends on how the variant spreads.

Aside from the possibility of spring spikes, the situation in Colorado has improved significantly from the fall surge, according to modeling reports. At that time, about 1 in 50 people in Colorado was infected. Currently, this is about 1 in 194 people. About 22% of the state’s population is immune to the disease because it has been vaccinated or recently infected with COVID.

The number of raw cases, which has been declining almost constantly since December, has recently leveled off. But officials said they didn’t know what was causing the flattening. “It’s difficult to derive a single factor that may be driving the epidemic curve,” Samet said. France also said the authorities really didn’t know.

However, the situation can be exacerbated by individual behavior and the spread of variants.

“If the B.1.1.7 variant spreads rapidly in Colorado and transmission controls decline in the short term, there could be another peak in hospital demand,” the researchers write. “In a boundary scenario where transmission control drops to 60% immediately and variants spread rapidly, demand can exceed the capacity of the ICU and approach the capacity of the hospital.”

In addition, new variants that can exacerbate the situation may be identified.

“We expect new variants to be identified in the coming weeks, some of which are more contagious and some of which will be more deadly,” Carlton said. I will.

According to officials, the best defense against variants is to keep masking, stay socially distant, and stay home as much as possible.