Why pandemics could undermine this year’s flu shots

Tufts infectious disease specialist and pediatrician Cody Meissner said scientists didn’t expect the flu to open again and people go on an adventure without a year’s worth of Covid-19 precautions. Said that new strains of the flu could circulate. A children’s hospital that also participates in the FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee. Without a strong enough vaccine, a pandemic-tired country could experience a severe flu season, just as it would result from the fight against the colonavirus.

“We may have a combination of low public health measures at the population level and low efficacy vaccines, and next year may be a fierce season for influenza,” said Georgetown University. Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, said.

Concerns about the knock-on effect of the surprisingly quiet flu season were highlighted earlier this month at a meeting of the Food and Drug Administration’s independent vaccine advisory board. Experts have suggested that lessons learned from last year’s flu season may help prevent high flu rates in the future, but it’s also hard to predict what next winter could bring. Did.

“During the meeting, we asked them,’Have you ever had a moment like this?’ To determine what happened the following year with few influenza pandemics. But this is truly unprecedented, “said Paul Ofit, a vaccine expert at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the FDA Vaccine Advisory. panel.

According to Gostyn, influenza is already a difficult virus to track down because it mutates more rapidly than other well-known viruses such as measles. Rapid changes in influenza produce multiple strains each year.

The process of predicting which influenza strains will prevail each season of influenza is a global effort. The World Health Organization gathers experts twice a year (once each in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres) to predict influenza strains, based on data collected by laboratories around the world. They include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of WHO’s six “cooperation centers” for influenza research.

At the Northern Hemisphere meeting in February, experts identified strains circulating in the Southern Hemisphere as autumn approached and used that information to interpret strains that could hit the northern part of the globe months later. I will. In the United States, the FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee reviews these recommendations and makes the final decision on the composition of influenza vaccines approved by the authorities.

Kawasar Talaat, an assistant scientist at Johns Hopkins, an infectious disease expert, is monitoring how the virus evolves during the season and which strains predominate towards the end of the season. Said.

There is little precedent for the recent US flu season. According to the CDC, the 2011-2012 flu season set records for the lowest and shortest flu peaks. Authorities report that last season’s numbers are still one-third that of the 2011-12 season.

In the previous years, the flu season in 2012-13 did not seem to have worsened, according to Talat, and the vaccine was as effective as or better than most years. Added. She said it was premature to know what the flu season would be next fall, or to predict what the potential efficacy of the flu vaccine would be.

“From 2011 to 2012, there were few flu seasons, so it happens every year. And last year there were three flu seasons, three peaks, which was also very rare. Therefore, influenza biology is a fascinating topic, “says Talaat.

Ofit said the low levels of the virus this season have provided enough circulation for the FDA advisory board to select vaccine strains and are not worried about the vaccine for next fall.

“It’s the belief that there were enough circulating viruses to choose which strains are likely to be associated with the flu epidemic next year,” Offit said.

Influenza wasn’t the only one with low flu this season. The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus has also decreased, according to Ofit. With the disappearance of respiratory viruses in winter, health experts believe that the Covid-19 mitigation strategy may be a necessary tool to fight them off each year.

“That is, can we wear masks in the winter months, at least when we are out with a lot of people?” Ofit said. “Did we know that there are hundreds of thousands of flu hospitalizations and hundreds of thousands of deaths, or are we willing to do so? I think the answer is B. I’m happy. Even if you just learned, there are ways to prevent it. “

According to Gostyn, people are ready to get their lives back to normal, and Covid-19’s pandemic fatigue can allow them to abandon masking and social distance at the right time for the flu.

“Most people don’t understand what happened when it was over after the 1918 flu epidemic, but it happened in the Roaring Twenties,” Gostyn said. .. “People gathered, mixed, hugged, and started kissing. Everything they missed. They flocked to theaters and stadiums and returned to church. That’s what’s likely to happen this fall, It makes the flu virus very happy. “