International
Russian and US election interference aims support for Ukraine after slow start
Malicious foreign influence in the U.S. presidential election got off to a slower start than in 2016 and 2020 due to a less contested primary season. Russia's efforts aim to undermine U.S. support for Ukraine while China seeks to exploit societal polarization and diminish trust in U.S. democratic systems. Additionally, fears that sophisticated AI-powered deepfake videos would succeed in manipulating voters have yet to materialize, but simpler, superficial, AI-enhanced, and AI-audio fake content will likely be more successful. . This information and analysis is contained in the second Microsoft Threat Intelligence Election Report released today.
Russia is deeply invested in undermining US support for Ukraine
Russian influence operations (IO) have intensified over the past two months. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has tracked at least 70 Russian actors engaged in disinformation activities targeting Ukraine, using traditional and social media and a mix of covert and overt campaigns.
For example, the actor that Microsoft tracks as Storm-1516 has successfully spread anti-Ukrainian narratives to American audiences using a consistent model across multiple languages. Typically, this group follows a three-step process:
An individual poses as a whistleblower or citizen journalist, broadcasting a story on a specially designed video channel. The video is then covered by a seemingly unaffiliated global network of secretly run websites. Russian expatriates, civil servants and other travelers then amplify this cover.
Ultimately, the American public repeats and republishes disinformation without likely knowing the original source.
Figure 1: Process used by Storm 1516 to launder disinformation in the American public space. China seeks to widen societal divisions and undermine democratic systems.
China uses a multi-tiered approach in its electoral activity. It capitalizes on existing sociopolitical divisions and aligns its attacks with partisan interests to encourage organic circulation.
Figure 2: CCP-linked sockpuppet accounts posting US-focused election content while posing as US voters
China's growing use of AI in election-related influence campaigns is where it diverges from Russia. As the impact of Russia's use of AI continues to evolve, actors linked to the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are leveraging generative AI technologies to create and effectively enhance images, memes and videos.
Limited activity so far from Iran, a frequent late-game spoiler
Iran's past behavior suggests it will likely launch cyber influence operations as U.S. election day approaches. Tehran's election interference strategy takes a distinct approach: combining cybercrime and influence operations for greater impact. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may cause Iran to change its goals and efforts toward the United States.
Risks related to generative AI in the 2024 elections remain, but differ from those expected
Since the democratization of generative AI at the end of 2022, many have feared that this technology could be used to change the outcome of elections. MTAC worked with multiple Microsoft teams to identify, triage, and analyze nation-state malicious use of generative AI for influence operations.
In short, the use of high-production synthetic deepfake videos of world leaders and candidates has so far not caused mass deception or widespread confusion. In fact, we've found that audiences are more likely to turn to and share simple digital fakes, which have been used by influencers over the past decade. For example, fake news on which real news agency logos are engraved.
Sometimes audiences fall for AI generative content, even though successful scenarios have considerable nuance. Our report today explains how the following factors contribute to generative AI risk for the 2024 elections:
AI-enhanced content is more influential than entirely AI-generated content. AI audio is more impactful than AI video. Fake content pretending to come from a private environment, such as a phone call, is more effective than fake content from a public environment, such as a deepfake. video from a global leader Disinformation messages have more impact in times of crisis and current events Impersonations of lesser-known people work better than impersonations of well-known people such as world leaders
Leading up to Election Day, MTAC will continue to identify and analyze malicious uses of generative AI and will gradually update its assessment, as we anticipate Russia, Iran, and China will all increase the pace of their influence and interference activities as November approaches. One caveat: If a sophisticated deepfake is launched to influence the November election, the tool used to carry out the manipulation has likely not yet entered the market. More and more sophisticated video, audio, and image AI tools are hitting the market almost every day. The above assessment stems from what MTAC has observed so far, but it is unclear what generative AI will observe between now and November.
The above assessment stems from what MTAC has observed so far, but as generative AI and the geopolitical goals of Russia, Iran, and China evolve between now and November, the Risks to the 2024 elections could change over time.
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Sources 2/ https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2024/04/17/russia-us-election-interference-deepfakes-ai/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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