Ma Ying-jeou's friend in Taiwan sails against the wind and does Xi's work

IIn 2015, Ma Ying-jeou, then President of Taiwan, made headlines as the first Taiwanese leader to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Singapore, a move widely interpreted as a demonstration of his stance on politics through the strait and its priority to relations with China. . Fast forward to 2024, and Ma was once again in the company of Xi, this time at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Although he described his 11-day visit to China as personal, during which he ostensibly led a student delegation, the nature of Mas's visit and meeting with Xi was far from personal or private.

As a member of Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), Mas has aimed to put China first since his time as Taiwan's president from 2008 to 2016. He has made efforts manifestos to influence Taiwan's elections in January this year by orchestrate an agreement between the KMT and the Taiwan People's Party of Ko Wen-jes, aimed at consolidating power against the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Mas's position indicates that he is rooted in the past while Taiwan is massively transforming in the present.

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Ma realizes what Xi wants

For many in Taiwan, it is surprising that a former Taiwanese president would interpret his visit to China as a a journey of peace and friendshipespecially given Xi's assertive actions, such as China's activities in the gray zone in the Taiwan Strait, and the absence of any signs of reconciliation with the current DPP and presidents (Tsai Ing-wen) and future (Lai Ching-te).

Upon his return, it appears that Ma took Xi's message back to Taiwan. In a Facebook posthe encouraged the president-elect to consider restoring the 1992 consensus, endorsing the one-China framework and refraining from promoting Taiwan independence.

This sentiment does not resonate with the majority of Taiwanese, especially given the significant changes that have occurred in Taiwan in recent years. More and more Taiwanese now identify only as Taiwanese (61.7 percent) and prefers to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait rather than unquestioningly accepting the 1992 consensus and the one-China framework.

During the meeting, Ma and Xi sought to convey their emotional messages in an effort to influence the Taiwanese people. Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the same Chinese nation. The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese. There is no knot that cannot be untied, no issue that cannot be discussed, and no force that can tear us apart, Xi REMARK.

A Weibo post featuring a photo of Ma at his hotel after the meeting with Xi described him as follows: too excited. However, Ma appears to have overlooked the consequences of unchecked alignment with China under the guise of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and the growing dependence that has fueled the Sunflower Movement in Taiwan in 2014. These factors largely contributed to the KMT's defeat in the 2016 elections. Currently, the perception of China in Taiwan has changed, with many Taiwanese wanting peaceful cross-Strait relations while preserving the Taiwan autonomy.

Although Mas's message is not widely appreciated in Taiwan, he is acclaimed in China, becoming perhaps the most favored Taiwanese politician in that country. A notable example is that of Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University. He praised Ma for urging Lai Ching-te to respect the 1992 consensus. Moreover, upon his departure from Taiwan after the meeting with Xi, Ma was accompanied on the tarmac by senior government officials. Taiwan Affairs Office.

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Meeting with Ma more beneficial for Xi

The timing of the meeting was aligned with the first trilateral agreement between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, the 45th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), and, most importantly, just one month before the inauguration of the next president from Taiwan. This timing implies Xi's intention to signal to Taiwan and the United States his willingness to engage with stakeholders who might be more receptive to his approach, even if they no longer necessarily have influence over policy Taiwanese or in the broader United States-China-Taiwan triangle.

In Taiwan, the Mas meeting did not generate as much buzz as in China, where major media as China and the People's Daily covered the meeting extensively. Nonetheless, the meeting conferred several advantages on Xi, clearly favoring him over Ma. First, domestically, Xi could show Taiwan is not entirely lost, underscoring the pro-reunification sentiments within the island. . Second, it provided Xi with a pretext to demonstrate his supposed commitment to peaceful reunification and openness to dialogue. Third, Xi took the opportunity to engage directly with a Taiwanese counterpart (even a former president), demonstrating his ability to adopt a more conciliatory tone toward Taiwan. This stood in stark contrast to the usual inflexible stance towards Taiwan, particularly in its interactions with its American counterpart.

On the surface, Mas's meeting with Xi seems conducive to restoring peace and stability and creates the illusion that any form of cross-talk is important. But its real impact on resuming cross-strait dialogue and mitigating China's coercive policies towards Taiwan remains elusive. Although Xi momentarily achieved his goals and made Ma understand that his legacy is valued (especially in China), the meeting did not necessarily benefit Taiwan. Gray zone activities and China's reluctance to engage with Taiwanese leaders will likely persist. The stability of cross-Strait relations ultimately depends on Xi's will and intentions. In this context, a meeting between Ma and Xi or any other assurance could have limited effectiveness.

Sana Hashmi, PhD, is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and the George HW Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Opinions are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)