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How could new US aid change the war in Ukraine? | Ukraine

How could new US aid change the war in Ukraine?  |  Ukraine

 


After the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine on Saturday, Dan Sabbagh examines what it could mean for the country's war against Russia.

What difference could more American weapons make to Ukraine?

Ukraine has been battling Russian aggression since U.S. military aid essentially dried up late last year, including suffering from an increasingly serious shortage of artillery. His army was forced to abandon the town of Avdiivka in Donbas in February and is now under pressure in Chasiv Yar.

Moscow's forces have managed to bombard kyiv at a ratio of at least five to one, rising to 10 to one, meaning that Ukrainian artillery is increasingly unable to prevent Russian forces from regrouping before ground attacks. The shortage was so severe that some Ukrainian gunners said they were reduced to firing smoke rounds to frighten the Russians because they had run out of shells.

At the same time, Ukraine lacks air and missile defenses, exposing its civilians to increased danger. Russia began aggressively targeting Ukrainian power plants, destroying two in the Kharkiv region in March and another south of kyiv earlier in April. Electricity is limited to a few hours a day in Kharkiv, a city of 1.3 million people, and concern is growing that the power system will be unable to cope, particularly in the fall and next winter.

When will American weapons start arriving on the battlefield?

Pentagon officials said Friday they are preparing an initial package that the White House will approve for sending to Ukraine days after the Senate ratifies the House vote and President Joe Biden signs it. . A Senate vote is expected Tuesday and the initial package, likely focused on artillery and air defense, could arrive soon after. Some munitions have been stored in Europe in advance and could be shipped within a week or two.

However, experts warn that it will take some time before a difference is felt. Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, said it could be weeks before we see significant effects on the battlefield, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned on Sunday that the Russia could attempt to mount a hasty offensive and launch new air raids in Europe. an attempt to consolidate its advantage on the Eastern Front.

When will Europe contribute?

European countries have been slow to reorganize their military-industrial base to support Ukraine. Unlike the United States, where some munitions, such as artillery shell manufacturing, are handled by state-owned companies, European countries rely on private sector companies and awarding contracts has taken longer provided that.

But concern over whether and when the United States would resupply Ukraine has accelerated activity. A Czech-led initiative to buy more artillery shells from neutral countries with excess stocks has secured at least 300,000, with the first deliveries arriving before June. Germany announced a week ago that it would donate a Patriot air defense system, while the Netherlands offered to buy Patriots from countries reluctant to give them directly to Ukraine .

What could be the medium-term impact on the war?

Russia has also increased its defense spending, up to 7.5% of GDP by some estimates, and innovated on the battlefield. Moscow is increasingly using crude but deadly aerial bombs to devastate the front line, at distances that kyiv cannot cover, and Ukrainian soldiers have reported increasing numbers of drones being used against them . Russia also has a manpower advantage on the battlefield, which it has been able to exploit with heavy weapons.

Experts do not expect Ukraine to reverse the situation on the battlefield in 2024. The bottom line is that this funding will probably only help stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025, said Matthew Savill of military think tank Rusi. Hodges argued that 2024 would likely be the year of industrial competition, where both sides would attempt to build up resources to try to deliver a decisive blow next year.

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2/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/21/how-might-new-us-aid-change-the-war-in-ukraine

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