Why does the UK feel so cold right now, and when will it get warmer?

It feels like spring, but it doesn't feel like spring at all. The trees have green leaves and flowers are blooming, but it's hard to believe that next week is May. Because it's too cold.

It's no surprise that temperatures this week have been well below average. In particular, it remained in the single digits in the eastern part of England. The University of Reading's atmospheric observatory said the average daily maximum temperature so far in April was 14.4 degrees Celsius, 0.4 degrees above average. This follows the warmest March ever recorded globally, at 1.68C above pre-industrial climates, and the 10th consecutive warm month on record.

Whether it's warm or cold outside has more to do with how we feel than the actual temperature. Wind, speed and direction, and amount of sunlight all play a big role in how we feel the weather.

My backyard faces north-east and in spring it feels cold when the wind blows from the chilly North Sea. Still, I think it would be much warmer if I sat in the sun with some shelter. One of the reasons is that the sunlight is as strong in April as it is in August. The sun is located at a higher angle in the sky, and its energy is more intense in late spring and summer compared to fall and winter.

Read more: Rainfall scientist explains what 'April showers' are and why they are getting stronger

By the end of March, I was looking ahead and hoping that high pressure would return, bringing an end to all winter's rainfall and bringing much drier weather. High pressure occurs in a heavy atmosphere as air sinks to the ground. Once in place, that high pressure blocks the usual low pressure weather systems that tend to sweep across the UK throughout the autumn and winter.

cooling factor

Fortunately, there was a lot of pressure on the forecast. Unfortunately, that high pressure was in the wrong place to make it feel like spring had arrived. High pressure occurred mainly across the Atlantic to the west or northwest of the UK. Air circulates around the center in a clockwise direction. This means air has moved into the UK from the far north, near Greenland, where the seas are frozen at this time of year.

Arctic air is also very dry. You may have noticed that your skin has been feeling drier than usual lately, or that you can see amazing views for miles from a hill or the top of a building. Dry Arctic air blowing from the north feels colder than moist air even if the temperature is the same.

Temperatures in the UK are set to get warmer soon due to a range of weather fronts. William Perugini/Shutterstock

The cold feeling may be offset by strong spring sunshine, but high pressure has generally trapped a significant amount of cloud with nowhere to go.

The more wind blows, the cooler our bodies feel and the colder we feel. A low pressure system east of England has caused northerly winds to compress and strengthen across central and eastern areas. Wind chill effectively halves the actual temperature, making 8C feel like 4C.

So when will you feel spring? Probably not this weekend. But there is a change in path as high pressure recedes and unsettled weather approaches from the west. Note the change in wind direction, which brings milder air that absorbs moisture (and more rain) from the Atlantic. We'll start to feel a bit warmer and more settled early next week, and temperatures will start to rise as we head into May.

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