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U.S., Israel grapple with divergent views on ending Gaza war

U.S., Israel grapple with divergent views on ending Gaza war

 


Near the end of a whirlwind trip to the Middle East this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken finished his meetings with the Israeli president and relatives of American hostages held by Hamas, left his seaside hotel sea ​​in Tel Aviv and shook hands with protesters gathered outside.

He looked them in the eye and said there was a new ceasefire deal on the table that Hamas would have to accept.

Bringing your loved ones home is at the heart of everything we try to do, and we won't rest until everyone, men, women, soldiers, civilians, young and old, is back home , did he declare.

This public display of empathy toward frustrated protesters is something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided since the war began in October. And, lately, he has focused his recent public comments on an imminent ground offensive, an invasion of the town of Rafah in southern Gaza, with or without a ceasefire agreement, as the Israeli leader said Tuesday .

Although this is not the first time Mr. Netanyahu has promised to invade Hamas's last stronghold in Gaza, American officials were surprised by the timing of the comment. Threatening an offensive in Rafah may pressure Hamas into accepting the deal, but only if Hamas leaders believe that the release of hostage Palestinian prisoners and a six-week pause in fighting could eventually lead to a permanent ceasefire and avoid a bloody battle in Rafah. where more than a million displaced Gazans have sought refuge, officials say.

Nearly seven months into the war, the stated goals and diplomatic efforts of the United States and Israel seem further apart than ever, a divide that continues to widen under the domestic political imperatives of President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu.

Mr. Biden and his top aides are considering a path that would involve Hamas releasing about three dozen hostages in a matter of weeks; both sides adopt a temporary ceasefire which leads to a permanent ceasefire and several hostage releases; and major Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, agreeing to participate in reconstruction and security efforts, as well as the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel.

Israeli officials have recently shown some flexibility over the terms of the ceasefire deal, saying they would reduce the number of hostages Hamas would have to release in the first round from 40 to 33.

Yet even as Israel relented on these points, Mr. Netanyahu rejected the idea of ​​a permanent ceasefire and doubled down on his public pledge to eradicate Hamas and many of the fighters he says remain Rafah, despite the widespread view among U.S. officials that its objective is unattainable.

U.S. officials oppose the Rafah invasion and say Israel should carry out specific operations against Hamas leaders, not a major attack. When Mr. Blinken met with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday, he reiterated the clear U.S. position on Rafah, said Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman.

The pressures on the Biden administration are also clear. Mr. Biden's liberal electoral coalition could fracture as opposition grows to his unwavering support for Israel in the war, jeopardizing his chances of defeating Donald J. Trump, the Republican nominee, in November. Students protesting Mr Biden's policies on US college campuses and the resulting police crackdown have further thrust the issue into the spotlight.

And the United States finds itself deflecting criticism from its Arab partners and governments in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and shielding Israel from pro-Palestinian United Nations resolutions. Amid cries of hypocrisy against Washington, it is clear that Mr Biden's support for Israel will make it more difficult for him to gain support for US policies aimed at countering Russia and China, particularly in the countries of the South.

Mr. Blinken is grappling with the challenges. On Monday, the first day of his current Middle East tour, in meetings with Arab and European officials in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, he steered discussions toward a hostage release and post-war reconstruction plans. in Gaza. He made humanitarian aid the theme of his stopover in Jordan the next day.

When asked by reporters about Mr Netanyahu's insistence on an offensive on Rafah, Mr Blinken said the ceasefire agreement and humanitarian aid were the focus of US efforts.

Israeli protesters outside the Mr. Blinkens Hotel in Tel Aviv were on the same page. They pinned their hopes on the U.S. government rather than their own to end the crisis, which began when about 1,200 Israelis were killed in Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 and about 250 were taken hostage . More than 34,000 Palestinians were killed during the Israeli army's retaliatory air campaign and ground invasion.

SOSUSA, only you can save the situation, the demonstrators chanted. Thank you, Biden, thank you, Blinken.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu are also clashing over what Americans call a long-term political solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Americans are working on a plan to get Saudi Arabia and perhaps other Arab countries to agree to normalize relations with Israel, but only if the Israeli government commits to a concrete path with firm deadlines for the founding of a Palestinian nation. Mr. Netanyahu opposes it, as do many Israelis.

Yet Mr. Biden maintains his general support for Israel in the war, and he has not placed conditions on military aid or arms sales, something even centrist foreign policy analysts and former American officials.

Mr. Netanyahu, who clings to power despite a decline in his international and domestic standing, faces a series of seemingly mutually exclusive choices. He is caught between competing pressures from the Biden administration and far-right members of his governing coalition, whose support is crucial to his government's survival.

His far-right ministers are threatening to resign if the much-vaunted Rafah operation is suspended. Bezalel Smotrich, the ultranationalist finance minister, described the proposed hostage deal as a dangerous Israeli capitulation and a terrible victory for Hamas. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, said on Tuesday that he had warned Mr. Netanyahu of the consequences if he did not go to Rafah and instead agreed to an irresponsible deal ending the war.

Centrists who joined Mr. Netanyahu's government in October, bringing broader popular legitimacy to his war efforts, have signaled they will not tolerate decisions based on political considerations rather than the national interest. .

Israeli public opinion simultaneously yearns for the return of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas, even if it is divided on the prospects of an absolute victory.

A poll commissioned this week by Kan, the Israeli public broadcaster, indicated that 54 percent of respondents favored an initial agreement that would see the release of the most vulnerable hostages during a 40-day ceasefire. . Nearly half of those surveyed (47%) said they would support a comprehensive deal for all hostages and an end to the war.

Netanyahu's political future depends on the outcome of the war, said Nachman Shai, a former government minister and expert on Israeli diplomacy and security. He can't juggle all the balls.

For now, Mr. Netanyahu's critics say, he is procrastinating. Some say he is counting on Hamas leaders to reject the proposed hostage deal, others that he is being held captive by his government's far-right ministers. Both points of view could be valid.

A political cartoon published Wednesday in Yediot Ahronot, a popular Hebrew newspaper, showed Mr. Netanyahu sitting at his desk, marked with the title of prime minister of Israel, reviewing the proposed hostage deal and saying: “This will not do never to my managers.

Sources

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2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/02/world/middleeast/us-israel-gaza-blinken-netanyahu.html

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