Harris surges in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor defeated in NT election

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. According to national polls compiled by analyst Nate Silvers, Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead of Republican Donald Trump by 48,844.8 votes. In my previous article on US politics last Monday, Harris was ahead of Trump by 47,144.6 votes.

Before his withdrawal from the Democratic nomination on July 21, Joe Biden had a national deficit of 45,241.2 votes to Trump. By the time of the election, Biden will be almost 82 years old, Trump 78 years old and Harris 60 years old.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the presidential race in key states Friday, US time, and endorsed Trump. Silver said Kennedy initially had 1,011% of support in a three-way matchup with Trump and Biden, but that percentage had dropped to about 8% when Biden withdrew.

When Harris replaced Biden, it reduced the number of voters who disliked both major party candidates, and Kennedy fell to about 4%.

Kennedy's withdrawal will probably help Trump a bit, because Kennedy's ideological positions were closer to Trump's, and Kennedy supported Trump. But Kennedy only had 4% of the vote before his withdrawal, so the impact won't be great. No polls have been taken since Kennedy's withdrawal or the Democratic National Convention, which ran Monday through Thursday this week.

The President of the United States is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its number of seats in the federal House of Representatives (based on population) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and 270 electoral votes are required to win (out of 538 total).

Silvers’ numbers were adjusted for Kennedy’s withdrawal. They reflect polls taken during the convention that gave Harris a boost before her speech Thursday. Because Silvers’ model factored in a convention bounce, Harris’s probability of winning remained little changed at 53.2 percent (53.5 percent last Monday).

Convention rallies typically peak the week after, then slowly fade. Polls next week will show the impact of the Democratic convention and Kennedy's withdrawal.

I wrote last Monday that if Harris leads nationally by four to five points after the convention, her probability of winning in Silvers' model won't change much. If she leads by six points, her probability of winning will increase, and if she leads by only two points, her probability of winning will decrease.

Labor defeated in NT election

In Saturday's Northern Territory election, the ABC has the Country Liberal Party (CLP) winning 15 of the 25 seats, Labor four, independents two and four seats remaining. Labor has governed the Northern Territory since winning the 2016 election. In 2020, Labor won 14 of the 25 seats, the CLP eight, independents two and the Territory Alliance one.

The NT-wide primary vote was 47.8% Labor (up 16.5% since the 2020 election), 29.5% Labor (down 10.0%), 8.3% Greens (up 4.0%) and 14.4% Independents (up 3.7%). The Territory Alliance, which won 12.9% of the vote in 2020, did not contest this election. The ABC's preferred two-party estimate is for Labor to win by 57,142.9 votes, a swing of 10.1% in Labor's favour since 2020.

The postal votes have not yet been counted, and they are expected to favour the CLP. In all four seats at stake, the CLP is leading and has a good chance of winning Casuarina. The Electoral Commission probably selected the wrong two candidates in Fannie Bay and Johnston, and must now recount the votes.

The Greens have a strong chance of winning Fannie Bay and an independent Johnston. If the Greens win Fannie Bay, it will be their first seat in the Northern Territory parliament.

In Nightcliff, we can't yet determine whether the CLP or the Greens will end up in the final. Labor easily beats the CLP, but we don't know if the Greens will be their final opponent, but Labor is expected to win.

If the contested seats go as planned, the final result will be 16 Labor candidates out of 25, five Labor, three independents and one Green. The Poll Bludger said anti-Labor swings were particularly fierce in Darwin's north, while Labor fared much better in rural and Indigenous constituencies. Four of Labor's five likely survivors are of Indigenous descent.

In 2022, Labor defeated the federal Coalition government and in 2023, it defeated the New South Wales Coalition government. I believe this is the first defeat of a Labor government in Australia since Labor lost the 2018 South Australian election. The Queensland Labor government looks doomed at the October election.

Federal polls: Freshwater stable at 5149 for the Coalition

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted between 16 and 18 August with a sample of 1,061 people, gave the Coalition a lead of 5,149 votes, unchanged from the July Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one point), 32% for Labor (up one point), 12% for the Greens (down one point) and 15% for all others.

Anthony Albanese's net approval rose four points to -10, with 45% unfavourable and 35% favourable. Peter Dutton's net approval remained stable at -3. Albanese leads Dutton as preferred prime minister by 4,541 (4,539 in July).

Good news for Labor: the Coalition's lead over Labor on the cost of living was reduced from 12 points in July to seven, and its lead on managing the economy was reduced from 16 points to 13. The cost of living was rated as one of the most important issues by 76%, well ahead of housing (38%).

Morgan Poll: 50,549.5 for Labor

A national Morgan poll, conducted between 12 and 13 August with a sample of 1,698 people, gave Labour a lead of 50.549.5%, a gain of 0.5 percentage points for Labour since the poll of 12 August 2011.

The primary vote was 38.5% for the Coalition (up 0.5%), 30.5% for Labor (up 1%), 13.5% for the Greens (down 0.5%), 4% for One Nation (down 1%), 8.5% for independents (down 1%) and 5% for others (up 1%).

The headline figure is based on respondents' preferences. Using 2022 election preference flows, Labour leads with an unchanged 5,149 votes.

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