For some, it's their first snow as arctic air sweeps across the UK.

Free forecast models from a variety of organizations are publicly available, so sometimes a single model run on a weather basis becomes the basis for an interesting headline predicting snow.

When you see headlines like these, it's important to remember that weather forecasting is a tricky science and long-term forecasts aren't always reliable.

Although there have been tremendous improvements over the decades, we know that prediction accuracy decreases as we move forward.

We also use a range of weather forecast data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office and the US Global Forecast System.

Because each of these models uses different math and physics, the predictions they provide may begin to vary over time, showing different results.

This is especially true for forecasts beyond 5-7 days.

So suggesting that the UK will get a lot of snow over a 10-day period based on one model at a time can be very misleading, especially when other forecast models don't show the same thing.

Now, I'm not saying it's “fake news” because there's a chance that one model run is wrong or that a given prediction is correct.

But as meteorologists, we have to look at all the data, understand the uncertainties, and come up with the most likely predictions.

But one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that you will be reading and seeing a lot more about snow in the coming weeks and months as we head into winter.

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