US, Europe fear escalation of Russian hybrid war amid Ukraine missile attacks | American foreign policy

The US State Department has expressed extreme concern about Russia's hybrid warfare campaign against the West, fearing it will intensify following Ukraine's first use of US-made long-range missiles on targets in Russia, after the Biden administration lifted restrictions on their use. .

Russia has promised an appropriate response to the new policy and has engaged in nuclear maneuvers by changing its nuclear doctrine in recent days. However, Western officials say the bulk of Russia's response may not come on the battlefield in Ukraine, but elsewhere in the world.

Potential hybrid attacks could cover a wide range of options, including expanding its sabotage and assassination campaign in Europe or further arming US adversaries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions, according to people briefed on discussions about a possible Russian response.

European ministers discussed Russia's asymmetric warfare at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, during which the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom accused Russia in a joint statement of systematically attacking the European security architecture.

Speaking in Washington, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said: In general, we are extremely concerned about Russia's hybrid warfare, both in Europe and around the world, and it This is something we have carried out in close coordination with our European allies and other allies and partners around the world. Referring to the recent sabotage of two submarine fiber optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea, Miller added that Russia would be held responsible for any further such acts.

Russia may choose to delay further escalation before the inauguration of Donald Trump, who has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine and broker a peace deal that is expected to heavily favor Russia.

The first Ukrainian attack with Atacms hit an ammunition warehouse in the Bryansk region, the New York Times reported, citing U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The region is located northwest of the Kursk region where a Ukrainian incursion has been underway since early August.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy did not directly confirm the Bryansk attack but said: “We now have Atacms, Ukraine's long-range capabilities, and we will use them.

The Russian Defense Ministry said five of the missiles were shot down and another was damaged. The ministry added that debris from the rockets caused a fire at an unnamed military installation. A U.S. official told the Associated Press that only two missiles were intercepted.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised to give an appropriate response to the first use of US-made missiles, which Vladimir Putin said would amount to a direct conflict between Washington and its allies. NATO with Russia.

The reports were released hours after Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council downplayed the decision, saying the review had been planned for weeks and that, observing no change in Russia's nuclear posture, we saw no reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russian statements. Today.

Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, said the new doctrine would not prevent him from supporting Ukraine. There is irresponsible rhetoric from Russia, and it is not going to deter our support for Ukraine, he told reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil.

Behind the scenes, U.S. and European officials also discussed the possibility of Russia escalating a growing campaign of attacks on U.S. and European infrastructure, which has intensified significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia in 2022.

In the joint statement, UK and EU ministers said Russian hybrid attacks were intensifying and unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks.

NATO and [the] The EU must do much more to protect this critical infrastructure, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hkknen told Politico. We know that Russia has [the] capacity and willingness to commit acts of sabotage in Europe.

Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Russia was waging an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks, demonstrating that the front line in this war is no longer just in Ukraine. Increasingly, the front line extends beyond borders, towards the Baltic region, Western Europe and even the Far North.

Intelligence agencies are currently investigating the recent damage to Baltic Sea cables, which were cut successively earlier this week.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Tuesday that the damage was believed to be the result of sabotage. No one believes the cables were damaged accidentally. I also don't want to believe that the ship's anchors caused the damage by accident, he said.

If this conclusion is confirmed, it should have been prepared some time before the United States authorized the use of Atacms missiles within Russian borders.

Europe could see an increase in state-sponsored attacks, including attempted sabotage and arson, assassinations and attacks on military bases, transport and telecommunications infrastructure, a person briefed on the said discussions.

A former senior European defense official has described the EU as completely unprepared to confront Moscow's escalating hybrid war.

The former official, who recently left his post, said Europe lacks the resources to counter Russian sabotage attacks, which they say will intensify following Biden's decision to provide missiles to long range to Ukraine.

A senior European security official described the recent wave of attacks as closer to terrorism, aimed at intimidating the population, influencing decision-making and affecting support for Ukraine.

Earlier this year, US and German intelligence reportedly foiled a Russian plot to assassinate a number of defense industry executives across Europe, including a plan to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.

Russia could also increase its support for Iran and its allies in the region, notably the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The United States, which supplies weapons and targeting intelligence to Ukraine, said the decision to authorize the Atacm strikes was in response to the introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops into the fight. and that they would target their abilities.

In October, US envoy to the UN Robert Wood bluntly warned that Pyongyang's forces entering Ukraine would surely return in body bags.

Neither the United States nor Ukraine has confirmed the use of these missiles, but in a statement, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on Tuesday that these missiles had hit a military arsenal at the 1046th logistics center located at outside the town of Karachev.

The destruction of ammunition depots will continue for the army of the Russian occupiers in order to put an end to the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the statement said.

Independent Russian media reported that residents of Karachev heard explosions overnight. Several videos circulating online, purportedly from the Karachev district, showed visible bangs and flashes.

This is of course a sign that they want an escalation, Lavrov told reporters during a speech at the G20 summit, adding that this would be seen as Russia facing a new phase of war from the West.

Britain is also expected to supply its own Storm Shadow missiles for use by Ukraine on targets in Russia, following US approval.

Although Moscow has promised retaliation, some analysts have suggested that its options on the battlefield are limited and the country is unlikely to resort to the nuclear option.

The most predictable and obvious will be an increase in strikes against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure in anticipation of winter cold, said political analyst Anton Barbashin.

He added that the use of long-range weapons supplied by the West is unlikely to constitute a definitive red line for Moscow.

Strikes with long-range Atacms missiles on Russian territory are more likely to be included in the list of red lines that will be crossed and cease to be red lines, Barbashin said.

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