Two recent photographs tell the story of the battle for primacy between the United States and China in one of the world's most resource-rich regions.
In both images, President Xi Jinping stands in the foreground, flanked by his Latin American host. President Joe Biden, by contrast, lingers at the end of the back row in one photo and is absent in the other.
Naturally, there are official explanations. In the first photo taken at last week's Apec summit in Peru, leaders stood in alphabetical order, which favored China over a rival superpower, starting with the United States. In the second, taken at this week's G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro, US diplomats said the group photo was taken early, before Biden arrived.
Yet the summit photographs serve as metaphors for China's eclipse of the United States in Latin America, a region Washington called its backyard.
Competition between superpowers is important because the resources at stake are vast. Latin America has 57 percent of the world's lithium reserves, 37 percent of copper reserves, almost a fifth of the oil and almost a third of the world's fresh water and primary forest reserves.
Well aware of the importance of the region, Xi added a state visit to his schedule to Peru last week, leading a delegation of several hundred Chinese businessmen and inaugurating the first phase of what will be a giant $3.5 billion port intended to revolutionize shipping from Latin America. Pacific coast to China.
Biden, by contrast, announced nine Black Hawk helicopters for a $65 million counter-drug program and a donation of used trains from California for the Lima metro.
It was such a stark contrast, said Michael Shifter, an assistant professor at Georgetown University. You have this huge Chinese megaport project that speaks to Peru's history dating back to the Incas and the search for greatness. And then what Biden delivered was additional helicopters for coca eradication. This seems completely outdated and obsolete.
In Brazil, the region's largest economy, the situation is similar. Xi was received with full honors in Braslia for a state visit after the G20, while Biden returned home. The US leader visited the Amazon on his way to Rio and announced a $50 million donation to a conservation fund, while Xi was expected to focus on multibillion-dollar Chinese investments.
China's trade with Latin America has multiplied over the past two decades, from $12 billion in 2000 to $450 billion in 2023. Beijing is now the main trading partner of most countries in the region and has the fastest growing investment stock. (Mexico, with its privileged access to the US market via the USMCA, is an exception.)
Beijing has focused in recent years on investment in key sectors in South America such as critical mineral mining, electricity generation and transmission, and digital and transportation infrastructure.
Margaret Myers, an expert on China-Latin America relations at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said 60 percent of Chinese investment in Latin America was focused on high-tech sectors that were a priority for both sides. There has been real interest in involving China, particularly in this type of investment.
Alex Contreras, who was Peru's finance minister during the construction of the Chancay megaport, told the Financial Times that any investment is welcome in a region with a huge investment gap. He added: If you have to choose between not investing and investing in China, you will always prefer investment.
Yet despite frequent U.S. expressions of concern about China's advances in Latin America, Gen. Laura Richardson, the former U.S. commander in charge of the region, warned that Washington's response was disappointing.
The Partnership of the Americas for Economic Prosperity, an initiative presented by Biden as a response to Beijing, was very well dressed, Shifter said. But when it comes to committing real resources, there is nothing.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House seems likely to give China an even more dominant role in the economic life of the region.
Matias Spektor of the Getlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo sees little chance that Trump will boost U.S. trade and investment in the region during his second term.
Trump's promises go in the opposite direction, he said, saying tough rhetoric would increase pressure on Latin American countries to rein in China's presence, while Beijing would be incentivized to to redouble its efforts, leaving the region's domestic politics deeply divided. Spektor added: This is the worst possible world.
