Business
Geopolitical dynamics influence stock market projections
As the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) prepares for a shortened trading week after the holiday, it faces geopolitical upheaval that is likely to cast a shadow over its performance in the coming sessions.
Last week, the benchmark EGX30 index saw a slight decline of around 0.01%, closing at 28,504 points. On the other hand, the EGX70 EWI increased by 0.94%, reaching 6,541 points.
The EGX30 Capped Index saw an increase of around 0.29% to 34,945 points, while the overall EGX100 EWI Index rose by 0.89% to 9,311 points. The S&P index also recorded a modest gain of 0.16%, ending at 5,716 points.
Hossam Eid, chairman of the National Investment and Securities Council in Cairo, argued that the EGX30 could challenge an important resistance level at 29,000 points, and potentially 30,000 points, if it maintains its stability at – top of the 28,000 point pivot support bar.
He added that recent international and regional geopolitical developments could soon influence the trajectory of Egyptian stock markets, with the index potentially falling by around 1,000 points. Nevertheless, a rebound is on the horizon, supported by the strategic decisions of Egyptian and Arab financial entities as they inaugurate their financial centers in sync with the publication of quarterly financial statements by the majority of listed companies, signaling commercial activity robust.
Investors are encouraged to focus on flagship stocks known for lucrative returns and consistently escalating profits, avoiding volatile and quickly traded stocks in order to minimize risks and comply with designated stop-loss thresholds.
The Egyptian stock market concluded last week with a trading volume valued at approximately 5.3 billion Egyptian pounds, comprising 1.3 billion shares spread across 189,000 transactions. This contrasts with the previous week's trading figures, which stood at 13.9 billion Egyptian pounds for around 2.8 billion securities across 434,000 transactions. The market capitalization of listed companies appreciated by 1.16%, amounting to 1.93 trillion Egyptian pounds.
Mohamed Fareej, head of technical analysis at El Suk Securities Trading, expects the primary index to test a crucial resistance point at 28,900 points, with a potential rally to 29,500 points if buying momentum offsets the selling pressures triggered by the latest regional incidents.
A slowdown is expected in Monday's session, a reflection of recent events in the Middle East, leading to selling activities and withdrawals, thus probing the index's key support territory at 27,900 points, followed by 27,600 points.
Investors are advised to exercise good judgment, avoid margin trading and reduce their positions at stop-loss intervals ranging from 26,400 to 26,300 points.
Egyptians accounted for 49.6% of total trading activity in listed stocks, while foreign and Arab investors accounted for 5.6% and 4.8% of post-deal exclusions, respectively. Foreign traders recorded net sales of EGP 72.7 million, while Arab participants recorded net sales of EGP 111.7 million.
Since the start of the year, Egyptian transactions have accounted for 88.4% of the value of transactions in listed stocks, all exclusions taken into account, with foreigners and Arabs contributing 5.2% and 6% respectively. 4%. Foreign entities made net acquisitions amounting to approximately 2.8 billion Egyptian pounds, while Arab traders made net disposals totaling approximately 1.67 billion Egyptian pounds in listed shares, excluding transactions.
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