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FLASH FRIDAY: Foreign wars shake stock markets, then and now
FLASH FRIDAY is a weekly content series covering the past, present and future of capital markets trading and technology. FLASH FRIDAY is sponsored by Instinet, a Nomura company.
As the tagline suggests, Flash Friday deals with the past, present and future of trading and technology in the capital markets.
What can we learn from the past? Which models are coming back? What does the past portend for the future?
We're trying to mine much of the past straight from Traders Magazine's own archives, which include a deep store of articles, news and people profiles from the 1990s onwards. But that means there's will have some recency bias in Flash Friday, at least to the extent that 20 or 30 years ago can be considered recent.
Naturally, the further back we look, the less information we find, especially since the media landscape wasn't exactly digital decades ago. But some of the most interesting stories date back to distant times, such as the 1917 summer holiday that closed the New York Stock Exchange.
Today, we go back even further to draw a remarkable parallel with today's stock market, which is in turmoil amid the Middle East conflict and what may follow.
On April 15, 2024, a CNN headline announced a fall in U.S. stocks as investors awaited Israel's response to the Iranian attack. THE article in the lead: US stocks were shaken by exciting economic data and concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the Dow Jones crossing 600 points on Monday.
To be sure, the market has stabilized since then as concerns about all-out war have eased, at least in the short term. But the underlying theme stuck: A war anywhere in the world that may have implications for U.S. involvement means uncertainty, and uncertainty is bad for stocks.
Flashing back 127 years is probably the furthest Flash Friday ever. According to This day in stock market history, on April 19, 1897, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level in history, 38.49. The index was first published by Charles Dow on May 26, 1896 at the level of 40.94. At that time, the index consisted of only 12 industrial stocks.
The website published a front-page article from the New York Times on April 19, 1897, which reported: Wall Street paid attention yesterday only to news about foreign wars. Citations were down throughout the list. The most widely traded stocks are generally those that have fallen the most, although in a few cases, inactive stocks have fallen exceptionally. Nervousness reigned throughout the day.
The news of foreign wars concerned the start of the war of 1897. Greco-Turkish War, which opposed the Kingdom of Greece and the Ottoman Empire. Among other things, the war was notable in that it was the first to be filmed on camera, although the footage has since been lost, according to Wikipedia.
Presumably, the stock market recovered quickly, since the Greco-Turkish War of 1897 lasted only 32 days. But many more conflicts on all sides lie ahead, up to and including the 2024 Iran-Israel standoff, all of which continue to have implications for stock markets.
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