After the Xi-Putin talks, here are some takeawaysExBulletin

TAIPEI and MOSCOW China’s top leader Xi Jinping concluded a state visit to Moscow, where he had nearly three full days of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two have a close relationship and have met 40 times over the past decade.

The visit was a particularly strong sign of China’s support for Russia, just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for alleged war crimes. Xi gave no indication that he presented the arrest warrant. Instead, the pair greeted each other warmly as “dear friend.”

A big topic on the table: Putin’s war in Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know about the visit.

For Putin, the visit was a diplomatic boon when needed

Putin has long been shunned by Western leaders over the invasion. And yet, in meetings with Xi in front of the cameras, the Chinese leader praised Putin’s “strong leadership”, even encouraging Russians to re-elect him in 2024. It was an awkward moment: Putin remained coy about his future plans policies.

“China’s support has been essential for Russia in handling retaliation and sanctions imposed by the United States, NATO and the European Union in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine,” he said. added. says Sharyl Cross, director of the Kozmetsky Center at St. Edward’s University in Texas and a specialist in Sino-Russian relations.

“Consolidating and developing Sino-Russian relations is a strategic choice made by China based on its own core interests,” Chinese state media said. reported Xi as Putin told Monday.

Xi obliquely shifted Western criticism of his growing ties with Putin: “It’s China’s strategic choice and it won’t change because of a temporary incident.”

China-Russia relations have benefited both countries in bilateral economic and trade leaps in the last year. China now accounts for almost a third of all Russian exports, and Russia recently became China’s largest oil supplier. Xi call for expand cooperation in sectors like energy and supply chains after his meeting with Putin.

As his country faces devastating Western sanctions, the Russian leader had no choice but to accept the Chinese offers, analysts say.

“China’s dominance over Russia is complete,” says Sam Greene, Russia specialist at the Center for European Policy Analysis. in a Twitter thread.

Greene describes the outcome of the talks as “remarkable” because the deals were so “one-sided” with Russia offering commodity exports but seeing little Chinese investment in Russia in return.

“Putin tells his people that he is fighting for the sovereignty of Russia. In truth, he mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing”, writes Greene.

A joint declaration of economic cooperation published After the visit, it was pointed out that the two countries would seek to increase their use of “local currency”, such as the Chinese yuan rather than the US dollar, to settle cross-border trade, including for oil and gas.

The two countries are also increasingly aligned ideologically in their opposition to the US-led world order.

“Xi Jinping seeks to assume a leading diplomatic role on the world stage and is increasingly willing to join Moscow in challenging Western values ​​and perspectives on international concerns,” Cross said.

There was widespread skepticism about China’s intentions

Xi arrived in Moscow, touting his visit as a ‘peace mission’ centered around a position paper in 12 points aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine.

Addressing Xi in front of the cameras at the start of talks on Monday, Putin said he had “carefully considered” the Chinese proposals, was “open to peace talks” and welcomed the ” constructive role” of China.

Yet two days of talks resulted in only lip service to the idea of ​​a deal.

Putin said the Chinese plan was consistent with Russian views and could form the “basis” for an eventual peace deal “when the West and Ukraine are ready”.

Yet few countries in Eurasia and Europe have taken the offer from China and Russia seriously. Unsaid: Putin continues to insist that kyiv recognize the “new geopolitical realities” of Ukrainian lands illegally annexed by Moscow, despite the fact that Russian forces do not fully control the territories militarily.

Ukraine refuses and insists that the Russian forces withdraw: “The first and main point is the capitulation or the withdrawal of the Russian occupation troops from the territory in accordance with the norms of international law and the Charter of the United Nations”, has said Oleksiy Danilov, Ukrainian National Security Secretary. and Defense Council, wrote on Twitter this week.

China’s position paper does not include provisions for the return of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia.

Closer ties between China and Russia have also alarmed former Soviet states in Central Asia.

“I think the Central Asian countries see that this plan is unrealistic and cannot be implemented in any way,” says Temur Umarov, a member of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Kyrgyzstan.

And despite all the fanfare around his peace efforts, Xi maintained a political balance in which he neither condemned Russian actions nor provided military support to Putin.

Meanwhile, China’s regional neighbor Japan has thrown its support behind Ukraine. While Xi was in Moscow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise trip to Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy.

Xi’s visit was an attempt by China and Russia to contain the diplomatic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The two countries tried to portray their talks as routine international diplomacy and fight back collectively to Western criticism of their political systems, saying they “oppose the hypocritical narrative of so-called ‘democracy versus authoritarianism.'”

“I think there’s a bit of damage control going on,” says Thomas Christensen, professor of international affairs and director of the China and the Global Agenda at Columbia University.

“After Beijing came up with its so-called peace proposal, it made sense for him to go and discuss it with Putin because he can try to show, especially to the developing world and some European capitals, that China is a constructive force, that China does not simply side with Russia, but tries to create peace.”

China’s support has also provided Russia with protection against Western pressure, with Xi fully embracing Putin’s framework on the Ukraine conflict as part of a broader Western effort to contain rival powers and prevent this. which Putin calls a historic shift towards a “multipolar” world.

A telling moment came when Xi bid farewell to Putin after a state dinner at the Kremlin on Tuesday.

“Right now there are changes like we haven’t seen in 100 years,” Xi told Putin. “And we are the ones driving these changes together.”