Germany continues to prefer rapprochement to confrontation with China

Nine months ago, on July 13, 2023, the German government published its “Strategy on China», a 64-page document whose justification is clearly stated: “China has changed. As a result of this and China's political decisions, we must change our approach towards China. » At the heart of the new approach advocated by Berlin was the aim of “reducing risks”, in other words, making the German economy less dependent on the German economy. China, considered to have become more repressive internally and more offensive externally.

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A year after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which reminded Germany how dangerous it is to depend so heavily on Russian gas, the country says it has learned its lesson. When German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock presented Berlin's new China strategy to the press, she said Germany had “learned lessons from [its] dependence on Russia,” which she called “a mistake we cannot afford to make a second time.”

Nine months later, what remains of this rhetoric? Olaf Scholz's visit to China, scheduled for Sunday April 14 to Tuesday April 16, clearly suggests that little has been remembered. The duration of the trip is three full days in China, the Chancellor's longest stay abroad since taking office in December 2021, and the size of the delegation, made up of the ministers for transport, agriculture and of the environment, as well as several CEOs, including those of Siemens, Bayer, Mercedes, BMW and ThyssenKrupp made this trip a sort of reminder of previous ones.

+136% exports to China from 2009 to 2021

“A trip almost like in the Merkel era”, writes the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung as Thursday's headline, summarizing a widely shared feeling. In reality, the policy of the current German chancellor towards China is a policy of continuity, much more than a break with his predecessor. German exports to China increased by 136% between 2009 and 2021, and are now double those of France, the United Kingdom and Italy combined, according to a study published in February by the Rhodium Group, based in Berlin. Over the past eight years, Germany's share of EU direct investment in China has reached 58%, 20 percentage points higher than in the previous decade.

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The current German Chancellor has already shown that he prefers rapprochement to confrontation with China during his first visit to China, in November 2022. The visit took place just 12 days after the 20^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at which President Xi Jinping was triumphantly re-elected for a third term.

More importantly, it came a week after the chancellor gave the green light to the acquisition of a stake in a container terminal at the port of Hamburg, the city of which Scholz served as mayor from 2011 to 2018, by the public company. Chinese company COSCO. At the time, the decision met with strong resistance within his government, with no fewer than six ministers speaking out against an operation that risked paving the way for a strategic infrastructure to be taken over by a foreign group.

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