Red walls and green dreams: what are the main battlegrounds in local elections in England? | By-elections

How times change. The last time this week's local election seats were contested was in 2021, Boris Johnson was enjoying a vaccine rebound, and a wave of Tory victories sparked speculation of a decade of dominance. Three chancellors and two prime ministers after Johnson's high point, his successor Rishi Sunak will scan a bleak electoral landscape for a glimmer of hope, while Keir Starmer will look for big breakthroughs to confirm that a red wave is indeed coming . Westminster.

The first big result will be Blackpool South in the early hours of Friday morning. Labor is expected to comfortably win this marginal red wall victory according to current polls, while anxious Conservatives will be watching the Reform vote share in the UK. Labour's big early victories in the Westminster by-election and early counting tips will help the opposition set the tone for coverage of the long days of counting that will follow.

The Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral races are the other contests to watch. Both have conservative incumbents, and if Ben Houchen or Andy Street manage to survive, it will prove that reputable conservatives can still thrive in a difficult climate for their party. The race in London looks less interesting: while Sadiq Khan's personal poll numbers appear weak, the capital's Labor leanings and the country's Labor mood should see him through. A Conservative victory would be a major upset and a boost for the embattled Sunak government.

Two new mayoral elections will also be closely watched: the East Midlands combined authority covers a region populated by Westminster outsiders, while York and North Yorkshire cover swathes of blue-leaning rural terrain, including the constituency of Sunaks. This is the Tories' best chance of electing a new mayor, and an opportunity for Labor to bloody the Prime Minister's nose in its own backyard.

There are many things to watch out for in the municipal election mosaic. Labor sincerely hopes to reclaim Hartlepool, a red wall council where a defeat in the 2021 Westminster by-election triggered the Starmers' worst leadership crisis, and make strong gains in traditional swing areas, such as Bolton and Milton Keynes, who generally support the winner in 2021. General elections. Dudley offers another key test: all seats are up for grabs in this Conservative-held council in a strongly pro-Brexit West Midlands battleground whose Westminster seats swung heavily against Labor in 2019. Labor will also seek winnings in Harlow, Thurrock and Basildon for evidence. as the wind turns in the Thames Estuary, long one of the most turbulent regions in England and which has become very blue since Brexit.

The opposition will also have a wary eye on councils with large Muslim or young progressive populations. The conflict in Gaza has proven to be a lightning rod for discontent with Starmer's leadership, with dozens of Labor councilors leaving the party over the issue. Results in places like Oldham, Burnley and Oxford will be watched closely for early signs of possible challenges ahead on Labour's left flank.

The Liberal Democrats are expecting a third strong performance in a row to build a platform for Westminster success in the Conservative-held blue wall seats they are targeting. The party hopes to take control of Wokingham, represented at Westminster by John Redwood, in west Oxfordshire, whose MP was formerly David Cameron; and in Elmbridge, where Dominic Raabs' Westminster seat is a prime target. Further Lib Dem advances in these areas will suggest a second front is opening against the government on the once truly blue terrain of the Home Counties.

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The locals also provide a test for two small parties that are gaining ground in the polls. The Greens have never been stronger in local government and will target Bristol, where they are already the largest party. A major breakthrough here would boost their campaign for their main target seat in Westminster, Bristol Central, where Greens co-leader Carla Denyer is seeking to unseat Labor shadow cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire.

The rise of support for Reform UK is the big topic in the polls this year, but so far they have barely registered in local elections. For the first time this year, the list of reformers is larger, although with barely one in eight wards covered, Farage's latest group remains a pale shadow of UKIP in its glory. Reformers hope that strong local performances in places like Bolton and Barnsley, as well as a creditable performance in the Blackpool South by-election, will dispel doubts that the party is a paper tiger lacking the necessary organizational strength to turn the strength of polls into votes.

Each party's expectations are set by the general election, which will be held in just a few months. The dominant but still anxious Labor opposition wants a big breakthrough on a broad front to convince skeptical voters and pundits that the tide has really turned. The Liberal Democrats are seeking a more concentrated push to build a strong platform in the blue wall, while smaller parties need to convince voters they are relevant voices with a role to play. For the Conservatives, who swept all before them in the last battle for these seats, the only goal is to hang on and weather the storm. An even bigger election storm is not far away.