Xi's visit reveals flaws in European unity

French President Emmanuel Macron's ambition to transform his country's relations with China is not new. Macron's first visit to China dates back to 2018, just months after his election to the presidency. He then committed to returning at least once a year to cement Franco-Chinese ties. The following year, he received Chinese President Xi Jinping at Parisalongside Angela Merkel, then German Chancellor, and Jean-Claude Juncker, then President of the European Commission.

Xi's 2019 visit came just after the European Commission released its new EU-China Strategy, which formalizes the triptych systemic rival-competitor-partner relationship, as we will end up characterizing it. Even then, Macron wanted to give Xi's visit to France a European flavor. He reiterated the same desire during his visit to China in 2023 with Ursula von der Leyen, the current president of the European Commission. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in the meantime, precipitating Europe with its dependence on China and Beijing's subsequent weaponization of those dependencies.

Macron's visit to China last year made waves when he told reporters that Europe must resist pressure to become America's vassal, giving the impression that it is caught between America and China. This operating mode is characteristic of Macron, who adept at working on sensitive buttons and sometimes too eager to have difficult conversations. His trip last year took place not only after COVID-19, but also while Russia, a very close partner of China, was and is still waging war against Ukraine. Before his trip, Macron said he wanted to convince Xi to push Putin back. It was no use.

Xi's visit and Macron's objectives

This is Xi's first trip to Europe in five years. Macron's charm offensive during Xi's visit to Paris (which is Xi's first stop before Serbia and Hungary) is characteristic of the French leader in that it aims to achieve at least two distinct goals. One is to convince Xi to end, or diminish, his support for Putin in Russia's war against Ukraine, including not providing Russia with essential military equipment. The second is a corollary of the first: building a closer personal relationship with Xi. To achieve this goal, Macron took Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, to southwest France to visit the home of Macron's late grandmother, to whom he was very close. Macron sometimes resorts to such displays of personal contact, as when he hosted Putin at Brganon Fort in 2019. France and China are also celebrating the 60th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations.

Xi's visit to Paris comes at a time when the war in Ukraine is increasingly becoming a meat grinder, as Putin relentlessly attacks Ukraine's infrastructure and civilian population. While Ukraine recently revealed that it had foiled a Russian plot to murder President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, time is running out.

Macron again invited von der Leyen to Xi's meeting in Paris. They discussed international crises, in particular the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, as well as trade and people-to-people contacts. Other topics included joint action to solve global problems, such as climate change, protecting biodiversity and easing the financial burden on poor countries. The situation in the Middle East warranted a separate discussion bilateral communiquéin which France and China called, among other things, for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Von der Leyen's presence at the table was key to sending a common European message, especially since she is known to be tougher on trade issues, having initiated the European Commission first. economic security strategy last year, which was supposedly independent of the country, but clearly directed towards China. Despite Von der Leyen's presence, the absence of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was notable. Scholz has visited China twice in the past two years and rejected Macron's offer to join him on those visits, just as he declined Macron's invitation to attend the meeting with Xi and von der Leyen in Paris this week. Macron and Scholz, however, met on May 2nd in Paris to prepare for Xi's visit. These contradictory messages appear to undermine impressions of European unity.

Deliverables and next steps

For Xi, this visit is of national importance, as he wants to demonstrate to the Chinese public that he is still committed to Europe. Xi also sought to encourage Macron's ambition for European strategic autonomy, something already present during Macron's visit to China last year. Xi's interpretation of strategic autonomy is one where Europe turns away from the United States and towards other partners, particularly China. But this is not the interpretation of France or Europe. The vision of Europeans strategic autonomy intends for Europe to equip itself with greater capacity and greater capacity for action, from a political, economic, security and defense point of view, to strengthen the transatlantic link with Washington. In contrast, Xi's goal is to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe and show that there are limits to China's transatlantic unity.

For Macron, the return on investment of his charm offensive could be even lower provided that, whether in matters of trade or foreign policy. Macron does not want to give up on convincing Xi to do less with Putin, but there is no indication that Xi will do so. The remainder of Xi's European tour suggests no inclination toward such compromise, nor any greater desire to constrain Russia's action.

Indeed, Xi has now moved from France to Serbia, where it will mark the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. From there, Xi will travel to Hungary, where Viktor Orbn will welcome him with great fanfare, and help undermine European unity in the face of China, especially as Orbn seeks to attract Chinese manufacturing of electric vehicles.

It is essential to maintain European unity in the face of China, but Macron and von der Leyen cannot achieve this alone. There are fears that what remains of Xi's trip to Europe is the Chinese president's ability to divide and conquer.