It was always believed that the Venezuelan government was able to stay in power thanks to the support of Cuba And Russia Or Iran. Although these governments have provided political, diplomatic and military support to the Venezuelan regime, No country has been as decisive as China to ensure the continuity of Hugo Chavez and Nicolás Maduro in power.
Over the last quarter century, as the Bolivarian Revolution was threatened, Beijing has provided economic support and political-diplomatic support. A few days before the presidential elections, China has once again become the ally on which the ruling party in Venezuela is counting.
The network of ties and interests that shape the strategic relationship between Caracas and Beijing began to take shape in 1999when newly elected President Hugo Chavez proposed Towards the construction of a multipolar world with alternative blocs to the “traditional” power centers.
Guided by this postulate, Chvez visited Beijing in 1999 and 2001, which marked the beginning of the China-Venezuela High-Level Joint Commission which raised the diplomatic relationship to a level Strategic partnership for shared developmentThe project has evolved from prioritising agriculture and energy to closer political, economic, commercial and cultural links.
In 2004, after winning a recall referendum, Chvez visited China to attract investment which would put him in an optimal position for his next battle: the 2006 elections. In addition to the agreed instruments of cooperation, this marked the creation of what would later become China-Venezuela Joint Fund (CVJF): A oil loan program which allowed Caracas to face the difficulties of international financing.
The link was further strengthened with the massive influx of Chinese capital into Venezuela during the period 2006-2012. Although the FCCV was the most relevant mechanism, infrastructure investments and trade has also increased. In 2010, a new financing fund was established through which the Chinese government transferred 20 billion dollars in the coffers of Venezuela.
Venezuela’s dependence on China became increasingly evident. China became the main lender to the Venezuelan government, which sought monetary liquidity to keep the Chavista social program alive. The loans committed future oil production. The flow was enormous: $62 billion.
The financing instrument was used primarily to pave the way for Chvez's re-election to his fourth term in the 2012 elections. His government purchased 3 million household appliancesthousands of houses, hundreds of buses, private carsmobile phones and laptops. These “Chinese gifts” had a decisive influence on Chvez's re-election.
After Chvez's death in March 2013, the new leader of the ruling party, Nicolas Madurowon elections in April by a narrow margin over opposition leader Henrique Capriles. The opposition and its international allies have not accepted the results, alleging irregularities in the vote count. The following months were very turbulent for Maduro, because his original legitimacy has been questioned by many countries.
In this context, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had also just come to power, received three key figures from the Venezuelan regime in the space of four months: God gave hairPresident of the National Assembly; Vice-President Jorge Arreaza; and the president-elect contested, Nicolas MaduroSoon after, Beijing elevated the bilateral relationship to a new level Global Strategic Partnership and renewed the FCCV, providing Maduro with an additional $14 billion. This economic aid remained unchanged until the crisis caused by the collapse of the national oil industry.
Despite the slowdown in funding and the internal crisis that the South American country was beginning to suffer, Beijing continued to offer political support to Caracas. 2016Part of the bilateral debt was renegotiated, which gave Caracas some breathing space before US sanctions in 2017 and 2019 made the situation more difficult.
China then threw a new lifeline for the 2018 elections. Maduro was re-elected after changing the democratic rules, amid accusations of fraud from the opposition. China was one of the 14 countries to congratulate Maduro. September of the same yearXi Jinping received his Venezuelan counterpart and reiterated his willingness to strengthen bilateral relations. And in 2019, when then-National Assembly President Juan Guaid declared himself interim president, Beijing continues to recognize Madurousing his veto power in the UN Security Council to block a resolution recognizing Guaid as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Economically, China has maintained its support. helped Caracas place its oil on the Chinese market while a US oil embargo was in effect and, in the context of the pandemic, Beijing sent 110 tons of medical supplies to Venezuela1 million PCR test kits, 8 million masks and 2 million gloves, as well as vaccines and other donations.
Chinese support has been reciprocated by Maduro in all areas. His government has given its support to all sensitive issues of Chinese foreign policy: One China Principlewhich recognizes Taiwan as an inalienable part of China; Hong Kong National Security Law; territorial disputes in the South China Sea; and rejection criticism of human rights violations in Xinjiang and against the Uighur community. The relationship between the two parties thus responded to a mutual political calculation, based on the strategic interests of each party.
In the current presidential campaign, China has once again become a key player in Maduro's bid to stay in power for six more years. During his visit to Beijing in 2023, bilateral relations were elevated to the status of A strategic partnership that stands the test of timeThe cooperation model thus integrates a new dynamic based on trade agreements in areas other than oil and granting a prominent place to subnational actors. With this new integration scheme, Caracas takes over The Chinese development model as an example for the reforms it wants to carry out.
In terms of domestic propaganda, Maduro has promised to build power stations and other works with Chinese capital, but also expressed his desire to fully formalize BRICS membershipthe group of emerging countries dominated by China. And Maduro boasts Chinese support to ensure its security in the event of a social conflict with the opposition. Its alliance with China assures it of “cutting-edge technology, in drone and anti-drone combat (sic)”, he said. A few days ago, Maduro threatened “bloodshed and civil war” if he and his party are ousted from power.
China has kept its end of the bargain. In March, when it was thought that Maduro would block the candidacy of the United Platform, an opposition party, Beijing has not hesitated to support Venezuela's electoral system while demanding that the U.S. government “avoid any interference” in Venezuelan affairs. In June, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson questioned dispossession to which Venezuela was subjected by the United States through the seizure of CITGO Corp, a subsidiary of the state oil and gas company Petrleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Paradoxically, while Chinese diplomacy frequently alludes to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of third countries, the unconditional political, diplomatic and economic support offered by Beijing has been essential to maintain the Bolivarian regime in power, a regime that goes against the principles of liberal representative democracy and exalts the achievements of Chinese authoritarianism.
The inertia of this alliance is clearly visible. Both sides view their relationship as a strategic prioritynotably Venezuela, which sees China as an ally in its fight against the United States. This link is strong in many areas, including economic, cultural and military, but it is fundamentally political. Beijing has thus played a key role in the electoral victories of the ruling party, both in terms of economic aid to the late Chavez and in supporting Maduro when his legitimacy was questioned.
Not only must the idea of a neutral China in Venezuelan affairs be refuted, but it seems undeniable that China prefers a Venezuela with Maduro in power, as this guarantees it an unconditional ally in the midst of a much broader and more important geopolitical conflict with the United States. This does not rule out, however, the possibility that Beijing will develop normal relations with a Venezuelan opposition government led by Edmundo González Urrutia, a candidate who, according to most polls, is garnering almost 60% of the vote. In this case, Beijing will face a dilemma: continue to support its preferred ally or open itself to a new stage in bilateral relations.
This article was originally published in Spanish here.
