China expects tougher times after Trump victory – Eurasia Review

By Qian Lang and Lucie Lo

When Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Donald Trump on his election victory this week, he warned that both countries risked losing in the confrontation, amid growing concerns that a Trump administration could be new bad news for China's economy in difficulty.

Xi Jinping noted that history tells us that the two countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation, China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its website, citing Xi.

A China-US relationship characterized by stable, healthy and sustainable development serves the common interests of the two countries and meets the expectations of the international community. paraphrased Xi as said.

We hope that the two sides, through mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, will strengthen dialogue and communication, properly handle differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, and find the right path for China and the United States can achieve mutually beneficial cooperation. get along in the new era for the benefit of the two countries and the world, the statement said.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng sent a congratulatory message to JD Vance on his election as US vice president the same day.

Trump's victory has sparked concern in China, where many expect the next president to be tougher on China than his predecessor. particularly on commercial and economic issueswith repercussions on an already struggling economy.

Trump's re-election as president of the United States will not improve relations with China, but will continue sanctions and the trade war by increasing tariffs. veteran political journalist Gao Yu ” said, citing a sharp drop in Chinese stock markets on news of Trump's victory.

The sharp fall in Chinese markets is part of a psychological reaction by the population, Gao said. China may be talking a good fight, but in reality it is very worried about a Trump presidency.

Prices

Rana Mitter, director of the China Center at Oxford University, said Sino-U.S. relations would likely experience a period of turbulence if Trump follows through on his promise to impose Customs duties of 60% on Chinese imports.

This is obviously a very high level of customs duties or import taxes on goods, Mitter told Radio Free Asia in a recent interview. And because this comes at a time when China's economy is vulnerable, it will likely be seen as the first step in an extremely detailed and likely quite rigorous negotiation between the two sides on resetting trade relations.

China… also wants to ensure that its currently rather sluggish economy, which is not currently operating at full capacity, is not made more vulnerable, he said.

But he said negotiations with China would likely be part of the Trump administration's attempt to rethink its trade relations with much of the rest of the world, including the European Union and other economies. .

Mitter dismissed recent speculation that the Chinese government would change its expected fiscal recovery plan in response to the US election result.

I think the main motivation for fiscal stimulus in China is domestic, he said. Fear that consumer demand simply isn't growing enough to play the necessary role in revitalizing the economy.

But he added: Policies that create economic uncertainty in China, for example tariffs, could make this situation more delicate and vulnerable.

Anti-Chinese Communist Party flavor

A Chinese researcher who only gave the last name Jia for fear of reprisals said Trump's re-election would certainly have a negative impact on the Chinese economy.

Trump's China policy has a distinct anti-Chinese Communist Party flavor, which will exacerbate economic and political chaos in China, Jia said. China's economy is already slowing and the re-escalation of the trade war will hit exporters even harder and could lead to more bankruptcies and unemployment.

A retired Chinese official who gave only the last name Tang for fear of reprisals said Trump is seen by many Chinese as different from traditional politicians and acts more like a trader.

The ultimate goal is to see who will bring the most benefit to the country and the world, Tang said. This is what the American people expect.

He added, however, that Trump's victory was unlikely to worsen Sino-US relations.

Sino-US relations have never really eased, Tang said. The conflict is rooted in the different ideologies of the two countries, which will not change with the arrival of a new president.

He said the less confrontational approach taken during the era of the late Supreme Leader Deng Xiaoping was not real détente, but simply a matter of the Chinese Communist Party biding its time.

There is no way there will be a detente because the problems run deep, he said.