Trump 2.0: Will China and Imran Khan test Pakistan's ties with the United States?

The former prime minister's team hopes that Trump will rely on Pakistan to free him from prison. But China could pose a bigger test for these relations.

ISLAMABAD — Amid an avalanche of congratulatory messages from political leaders around the world following his victory in the US presidential election, Donald Trump received a message from an unexpected source: former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, his very good friend currently in prison.

In a brief 55-word message on his social media account X, Khan congratulated Trump on his victory and said the will of the American people held against all odds.

President-elect Trump will be beneficial to Pakistan-US relations based on mutual respect for democracy and human rights. We hope he will push for peace, human rights and democracy globally, Khan's message read.

Congratulations on behalf of myself and the PTI to @realDonaldTrump for winning the US presidential elections. The will of the American people has held against all odds.

President-elect Trump will be good for Pakistan-US relations based on mutual respect for democracy and human rights. We hope

– Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) November 6, 2024

The message highlights some of the ways in which deeply divided relations between Pakistan and the United States under a second Trump presidency could be tested, analysts say.

Will Trump intervene on Khan's behalf?

While most experts say Pakistan is unlikely to be a priority for the new administration, Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), hopes that Trump's victory could ease the political turmoil facing the former Prime Minister, who was just elected only two years ago. He earlier accused the United States, under the leadership of President Joe Biden, of interfering in Pakistan's domestic politics to remove it from power.

Former Pakistani President and senior PTI member Arif Alvi congratulated Trump on his victory, adding that free and fair elections had enabled American citizens to realize their dreams.

We look forward to continuing our cooperation as democratic nations. Indeed, your victory must have sent shivers down the spines of the dictators and would-be dictators of the world, Alvi wrote on the X platform.

But Pakistani officials seemed confident that the United States under Trump would not pressure them for Khan's release and set a red line in Islamabad on the issue.

Pakistan and the United States are old friends and partners, and we will continue to maintain our relations on the basis of mutual respect, mutual trust and non-interference in each other's internal affairs, the President said on Thursday. Presses the spokesperson for the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.

Joshua White, former White House official for South Asian affairs during the Obama administration, suggested that engagement with Pakistan was unlikely to be a priority for the Trump team.

White, now a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that Pakistan is viewed in Washington primarily through a counterterrorism lens, with little appetite for renewing a broader security or economic partnership .

It's plausible that someone in Trump's entourage could encourage him to address Khan's case or the PTI's position more generally, White told Al Jazeera, but it's unlikely he would use the the influence of the American government to put pressure on the Pakistani army on this issue.

After Khan was impeached by a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, he accused the United States of collusion with the Pakistani military to remove him, a claim denied by Washington and Islamabad.

But relations have since gradually warmed between the two countries, with the Biden administration appointing Donald Blome as US ambassador to Pakistan in May 2022, filling a vacancy since August 2018.

Throughout the crackdown on Khan and the PTI, including Khan's imprisonment since August 2023, US officials have largely refrained from commenting, citing this as an internal matter to be resolved by Pakistan.

However, following February's controversial general elections, in which the PTI claimed its majority was reduced due to mandate theft, the United States did not characterize the election as free and fair. .

Congress then held a hearing on the future of democracy in Pakistan, with lawmakers urging President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to review the election result. In October, more than 60 Democratic lawmakers urged Biden to use Washington's influence with Pakistan to secure Khan's release.

Although Trump criticized Pakistan during his first term, accusing it of providing only lies and deception, he developed a relationship with Khan during the latter's term, from 2018 to 2022.

The two first met in Washington in July 2019, then in Davos in January 2020, where Trump called Khan a very good friend. In contrast, relations between Khan and Biden were frosty, with Khan often complaining that Biden never made contact with him.

Just days before the November 5 elections, Atif Khan, a senior PTI leader, also met with Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump to discuss her concerns over Khan's incarceration.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States and the United Kingdom, questioned expectations that Trump could intervene on Khan's behalf.

Even though Trump and Khan enjoy warm relations, Pakistan is not high on the US foreign policy agenda, Lodhi told Al Jazeera. Relations are at a crossroads and need to be redefined, but it is unclear to what extent the Trump administration would be interested in engaging on this front.

Will Pakistan import more or less to the United States under Trump?

Foreign policy expert Muhammad Faisal added that Pakistan, which had ties to the United States under Trump due to the conflict in Afghanistan, may now receive less attention as the administration grapples with problems such as Gaza, Ukraine and tensions between the United States and China.

The presidency will focus more on domestic policy and global trade issues. Pakistan's domestic politics are not a topic of common interest for the new Trump administration, the Sydney-based analyst said.

However, some believe that Pakistan's importance to US interests could increase if tensions in the Middle East increase, particularly with Iran.

Pakistan's importance could grow if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, Washington-based geopolitical commentator Uzair Younus told Al Jazeera. In such a scenario, Pakistan could serve as a partner in limiting the influence of Iran's regional proxies.

China's test

Pakistan's ties with China could also come under scrutiny, other observers said.

China, Pakistan's long-time ally, has invested heavily in Pakistan through the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative.

Pakistan's growing economic dependence on China has raised concerns among international lenders, especially given Pakistan's debt of $130 billion, 30 percent of which is owed to China.

Niloufer Siddiqui, associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York, said Pakistan may have two reasons to remain cautious under Trump.

The first is that foreign aid to Pakistan could be further reduced during his tenure. The second is that given Trump's hawkishness towards China, Pakistan could find itself caught between wanting to improve its relations with the United States and maintaining its close strategic alliance with China. That balance is likely to become trickier under Trump, she told Al Jazeera.

While Pakistan was a major recipient of US aid during the early years of the Afghan war, the last six years have seen a drastic reduction, with the country receiving just over $950 million in aid. aid, according to a 2023 congressional report.

White, the former Obama administration official, echoed that sentiment, noting that Trump's advisers would likely view China as an adversary and thus might approach Pakistan with some caution, perceiving it as an ally of Beijing.

Trump's new team will likely be led by officials who view China as a political, military and economic adversary of the United States. As such, they will be inclined to view Pakistan with suspicion as a country within China's sphere of influence, he added.

As Trump's inauguration approaches in January, the coming months will reveal how U.S.-Pakistan relations could evolve, experts say. But ultimately, they suggest that significant change is unlikely.

While the United States is likely investing its attention and energy on China and the Indo-Pacific region, and the war in Afghanistan no longer occupies American attention, the best Pakistan can hope for is continued engagement on economics, climate change and counterterrorism, Fahd Humayun, said an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University.

C. Al Jazeera

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