Politics
Waiting for Mega Luck for Risma-Gus Hans in East Java Gubernatorial Election
PDI-Perjuangan (PDI-P) General Chairman Megawati Soekarnoputri is expected to stop in Surabaya to campaign for PDI-P candidate duo for East Java Governor and Vice Governor Tri Rismaharini-Zahrul Azhar Asumta (Risma-Gus Hans). It is hoped that Megawati's presence can improve the performance of the PDI-P political machine in the East Java gubernatorial elections.
“Megawati is a figure who still has a solid mass base, including in East Java. There are several areas where the mass base of the PDI-P is very strong in the East Java region, especially the Abangan areas if we want to use Geertz's terminology,” said a sociologist from Trunojoyo University of Madura, Iskandar Dzulkarnain to Alinéa.idMonday (11/10).
The term abangan was coined by anthropologist Clifford Geertz in the book “The Religion of Java”. The Abangan are a group of Javanese Muslims who practice Islam in various sects such as Hinduism, Buddhism and animism.
Historically, abangan groups have been more likely to vote for the Indonesian National Party (PNI) and the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI). In the contemporary political era, most abangan groups are constituents and sympathizers of the PDI-P.
“For example, Blitar, Malang, Surabaya, Kediri. The charismatic figure of Megawati still has quite a significant influence in swaying votes in East Java. Moreover, her spirit is deeply rooted in her to fight for the little people in every slogan,” says Iskandar.
The results of a survey of a number of institutions show that the level of electability of Risma-Gus Hans is still low in the East Java gubernatorial elections. The Denny JA Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) survey, which took place from October 16 to 22, for example, showed that the outgoing couple Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak (Khofifah-Emil) was dominant with a score of 65, 8%.
In the survey, the Risma-Gus Hans couple collected only 24.5%, while the Luluk Hamidah-Lukmanul Khakim couple was the deadliest with an electability of 1%. Other surveys also found relatively similar candidate ranking compositions.
Trias Politika Strategis Executive Director Agung Baskoro believes that Megawati's presence in East Java is very likely to have an electoral effect on Risma-Gus Hans. Megawati can at least match the influence of the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and President Prabowo Subianto in the East Java gubernatorial election.
“When we talk about Megawati, we talk about the coattail effect that Ms. Mega is trying to convey. I think this could have an impact on the highly competitive East Java regional elections. All campaign variables will have an impact,” Agung told Alinéa.idMonday (11/11).
As an incumbent couple, Khofifah-Emil is supported by 16 political parties, both DPRD political parties and non-parliamentary parties. The majority of DPRD seats in East Java are part of the Indonesian Advanced Coalition (KIM) which represents the political leadership of Prabowo and Jokowi.
Furthermore, Agung believes that it is not enough for Risma-Gus Hans to simply hope for electoral benefits from Megawati. To win the regional elections, all electoral variables must be optimized, including strengthening the figure of the candidates in order to attract public sympathy.
“So everything can be done, including optimizing Gus Hans. So far, the deputy variable is considered not to provide electoral support. Even if the deputy also determines that he is attractive and moves here and there. It will definitely help,” Agung said.
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