The influence of Jokowi and Anies in the 2024 Jakarta regional elections, who is stronger?

Executive Director of the Indonesian Political Parameters (PPI), Adi Prayitno, believes that the contestation of the 2024 Jakarta legislative elections will be fierce. According to him, it is not only the battle between candidates that is in the spotlight, but also the role of the 'King Maker' behind the pairs of candidates (paslon) who face each other.

Adi revealed that behind candidate couple number 01 Ridwan Kamil-Suswono (RIDO), there was the support of two big personalities, namely Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Both are considered the main “King Maker” of the couple.

Meanwhile, candidate pair number 02, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno, is supported by PDIP General Chairman Megawati Soekarnoputri and Anies Baswedan. However, according to Adi, until now Anies has not publicly expressed his support for Pramono Anung and Rano Karno.

Anies has not been seen openly supporting Pram-Rano. Only a few spokespeople joined the Pram-Rano team. To date, Anies has not been seen meeting with Megawati to balance interests in Pram-Rano's victory. “What is clear, the one and only, Megawati is the main 'King Maker' here,” Adi said on Tuesday (11/19/2024).

Adi also added that Anies' support so far has only been conveyed through intermediaries, including Sahrin Hamid who is his spokesperson.

If it is true that Anies supports Pram-Rano, he should declare it openly, participate in the campaign and become an activist (jurkam) to convince his voters to support Pram-Rano, he said.

Furthermore, Adi pointed out that at the local level, Anies and PDIP supporters, especially those who support Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok), are still struggling to unite. The political wounds of the 2017 DKI Jakarta legislative elections are still being felt, particularly due to the stark ideological differences between the two camps.

Anies and Ahok voters in the 2017 Jakarta legislative elections were very ideological. It is not easy to unite two camps of voters whose wounded hearts still persist today. At the elite level, it may seem like they get along well, but at the grassroots level, that's not necessarily true, Adi explained.

He added that until now, there is no clear common ground between Anies and Ahok supporters to make peace.

Ahok's supporters find it hard to forget the numerous protests led by groups supporting Anies, such as the National Movement to Keep Ulema Fatwa (GNPF) and Alumni 212, who demanded that Ahok be imprisoned for religious blasphemy , he said.

Adi also noted that groups such as GNPF Ulama, Alumni 212, as well as most PKS voters have struggled to reconcile with Ahok and his supporters. Likewise, Ahok's supporters are still reluctant to accept the parties involved in these actions.

Meanwhile, the candidate duo Ridwan Kamil-Suswono seems more comfortable with the support of Prabowo and Jokowi. This support is expected to increase the electability of the couple promoted by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM).

However, according to Adi, media support is not enough. The “King Makers” must also go directly to the field to further convince their supporters.

The support of key elites such as Jokowi and Prabowo is very important to increase the electability of candidates. It is certain that their loyal voters will follow the direction of this support. However, approval alone is not enough. Key elites need to get to work, become activists and actively steer their voters toward certain candidates, he stressed.

Adi gave the example that Jokowi, who openly supports Ridwan Kamil, showed his efforts to consolidate his loyal voters to support the RK-Suswono pair.

“It seems that Jokowi will directly move his political machine to Jakarta to win RK-Suswono,” he concluded.