Wall Street still doesn't know what to think of Donald Trump (Morning Brief)

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A decisive victory for Donald Trump has eliminated any uncertainty around the results of the 2024 presidential election.

But what Trump's second term means for investors is still up for debate.

“We think it's fair to say that the U.S. stock market is in a process of discovery regarding the new administration's domestic policy agenda and that the political environment presents potential tailwinds and headwinds for stocks at of the coming year,” said RBC's head of capital markets. equity strategy,” Lori Calvasina wrote Monday in a research note on the 2025 outlook.

Market developments since Trump's victory in the November 6 elections confirm this.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) soared 2.5% the day after Trump's victory. Since then, the benchmark index has risen less than 1%. At one point, the S&P 500 had given back all of its post-election rally before rebounding again.

Small caps, a popular Trump market, surged after the election, with the Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) rising about 9% immediately afterward. Then the trend reversed, with the index giving back more than half of its gains. Another swing saw the Russell 2000 hit an intraday record on Monday.

As Calvasina wrote: “As of now, we simply don't know what the new administration will do with respect to its campaign promises, or how well it will deliver on them, which adds to the fog.”

Another pillar of Trump trade has seen long-term Treasury yields rise as investors fear new tariffs could push inflation higher. Friday night's announcement of the president-elect's nomination of Scott Bessent as the next Treasury secretary calmed some nerves, bringing the 10-year yield back to roughly its Election Day level.

In a note to clients Monday, Capital Economics' chief North America economist Paul Ashworth cautioned against reading too much into Trump's Cabinet picks, given “the uncertainty surrounding the policies President-elect Donald Trump will adopt in his second term.”

Ashworth's comments get to the root of the market's current problems: Ultimately, campaign promises are just that, promises.

A view shows a hat in support of Republican Donald Trump after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo Reuters/Reuters

During Trump's first term, nearly half of the 15 people he initially appointed to lead executive departments disappeared halfway through his presidency.

In a note Monday releasing his 6,600 forecast for the S&P 500 for the end of 2025, Venu Krishna, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays, chose not to include an impact on how the changes U.S. policy changes could affect earnings or valuations due to the “fluidity of Trump 2.0 politics.” perspectives.”

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