Boris Wave brings record migration balance

Net migration reached almost a million people in the year to June 2023, according to revised figures released today by the Office for National Statistics. The independent statistics authority initially estimated that net migration to the UK stood at 740,000 during this period, but this figure was revised upwards from 166,000 to 906,000. The ONS has said the initial figure significantly underestimated the number of people who would remain in the country for more than 12 months.

In its report on the revised data, the ONS said the increase in long-term immigration was due to the convergence of several factors, including the war in Ukraine, Hong Kong's asylum program, demand pent-up study-related immigration that had been brought under control during the pandemic and the effects of a liberal post-Brexit visa system.

On the other hand, the figures show that there has been a decline in net migration, from 906,000 in the year ending June 2023 to 728,000 in the year ending the end of June 2024.

Responding to the revised figures at a Downing Street press conference today, Sir Keir Starmer criticized his Conservative predecessors for the figures. The Prime Minister said: Policies were deliberately reformed to liberalize immigration. Brexit was used for this purpose, to transform Britain into a one-nation experiment with open borders.

These figures are undoubtedly political dynamite and it is clear that the Conservative Party is extremely vulnerable when it comes to net migration. One of the reasons the Conservatives were so badly beaten in the recent general election is that they promised for over a decade to reduce net migration figures, only to see a record increase in the number of people coming to the country.

Boris Johnson, who as Prime Minister relaxed entry rules, has not yet received any news. Critics are already calling it the Boris wave. Even though Brexit has been identified with demands to reduce immigration, Johnson is ultra-liberal on the subject.

Starmer is clearly trying to get this message across after new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said yesterday that his party got it wrong on immigration while in power between 2010 and 2024. Perhaps to reinforce This line of attack, the Labor Party this afternoon released a graphic on X, declaring: The Conservatives have lost control of our borders. Labor takes it back.

However, the triumphant tone is not entirely borne out by the latest figures. The ONS report also makes clear that the recent decline in net migration is largely due to measures introduced by the previous Conservative government led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. These measures have prevented most international students from bringing family members with them to the UK. They also banned foreign social workers from bringing in family members and doubled the minimum salary required to obtain a work visa, raising it to 38,700.

Nor can Labor afford to be complacent about immigration policy as a whole. Indeed, if the new figures from the ONS were politically explosive, the new statistics from the Home Office will also fuel the debate on immigration to the United Kingdom.

The latest Home Office statistics, also published today, revealed that the number of asylum seekers accommodated in hotels across the UK increased by at least 6,066 between June and September 2024, although the total number remains well below the peak of 56,042 reached in 2024. at the end of September 2023. The data also shows that Home Office spending on the asylum system increased by 1.43 billion in the 2023/24 financial year and reached a record total. of 5.38 billion. This is 36% more than in 2022/23, when 3.95 billion was spent on the system.

This is important because the Starmers government has also staked its political capital on tackling illegal immigration and promised to crush smuggling gangs. Tonight, in the face of soaring costs of the UK asylum system, he said unequivocally: We must reduce the cost of asylum and we have a clear commitment to reducing the cost of hotels, ending the use of hotels.

The Prime Minister has pledged to avoid easy answers and to avoid arbitrarily putting a number on net immigration figures. Starmer's supporters will say this marks a much more honest approach to a complex issue than that of his predecessors. Critics, however, will say that emphasizing the complexity of the issue can easily become an excuse for inaction.

Above all, public perception of control is of utmost importance. The Prime Minister has made progress in clearing the UK's asylum backlog and contributed to a fall in the rate of applicants being granted refugee status. As long as net migration figures continue a downward trajectory, Starmer can credibly claim that Labor has restored order to the immigration system.

Yet if net migration increases again, or even remains stubbornly high, Labor will also have to worry about reform. The party trails Labor by many seats. Its leader, Nigel Farage, at his own press conference today, lambasted the Conservatives, but he also blamed what Reformers call the one-party system of the two main parties and says the rise began there for a long time under New Labour. The political fallout from current net migration figures could harm both Labor and the Conservatives.

Jack Dickens

reaction reporter

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