What these new landing barges can tell us about Chinas' plans to invade Taiwan

Chinese Taiwan intentions have been at the center of intense discussions for years. Continental China and Taiwan claim to represent the real China after the nationalist party of Kuomintang under the shek of Chiang Kai withdrew through the Strait of Taiwan and established the Republic of China there in 1949. Since then, since then, continental China, the People's Republic, has maintained a complaint on Taiwan.

But in recent years, Chinese leaders, including the current president, Xi Jinping have spoken of Reunification plans This would bring Taiwan and its population of 23 million inhabitants under the control of Beijing. By force if necessary.

Now the recent appearance of a Handle of barges of strange appearance In a beach in the province of Guangdong, in the People's Republic, can be an important movement towards this unwanted potential result.

THE Shuiqiao barges Shot in March 2025, working together to form a relocable bridge, the name means that the water bridge allow the transfer of vehicles, supplies and people between the ship and the shore, on shallow beaches and potential obstacles on a firm land. Analysts have already pointed out That there is no obvious commercial role for such important ships, so the most likely objective is for the landing of the armed forces during amphibious operations.

All the main navies maintain a certain form of amphibious capacity. Uks Auxiliary of the royal fleetFor example, operates UKS Three Bay class landing shipswhich should be replaced by six modern Multi-roll typing ships. What is particularly significant, however, is that Shuqiao offers capacities in lines similar to the Mulberry ports Built for D -Day landings of Normandy.

The specialized nature of these landing barges, with a single real goal to help get a large number of military forces, contrasts with the consumer amphibious ships. Bay class ships, for example, continue to be used for civil evacuations, humanitarian aid, help in the event of a disaster and a wide range of military roles.

It is a crucial distinction because amphibious operations have enormous logistical challenges. D-Day required 850,000 soldiers, 485,000 tonnes of supplies and 153,000 vehicles to land safely during the first three weeks. Ports tend to be difficult to grasp intact, as has been demonstrated at a high cost during the 1942 raid on DieppeIt is therefore generally necessary to land armies on the invasion beaches.

The possibility of installing temporary ports, which Shuiqiao bridges seem to provide, offers a way to quickly get large forces of larger ships on the shore. This also reduces the number of specialized landing ships required, allowing the use of commercial ships to transport troops to these makeshift ports.

Is an invasion of Taiwan imminent?

What is worrying is that such specialized landing barges are normally built only for a short time before being intended to be used. The Mulberry ports entered production only a year before landings in Normandy. It is both a question of ensuring that they are in good working order if necessary, but also because they tend to offer little additional value and yet at a significant price. In this case, the closest comparable civil and military ships cost Hundreds of millions of dollars each.

This does not mean that their appearance guarantees that a Chinese Taiwan invasion is imminent. Currently, there would be three landing barges, ready -made prototypes ready for deployment and three under construction. This would offer one or two beach bridges, each estimated 820 meters long.

It would be of a minimum value in a major invasion. The single US Navy Modular floating pierge jlots in Gaza, for example, could not land 8,800 tonnes of aid in 20 days. Although Gaza's effort was affected by bad weather, any Shuiqiao landing bridges would be confronted with much more dangerous war conditions. Three to six barges could also be still plausible for help in the event of a disaster, even if it does not seem a particularly profitable way to provide help.

But if the number of these barges continues to increase, the hypothesis must be that a major amphibious shipment is probably in the next decade. Historically, neither the United Kingdom, the United States nor any other major power maintained only one handful of landing ships as specialized, except when they intended to use them. In the case of these barges, the target cannot necessarily be Taiwan, even if it would be the most obvious target.

Assuming that an invasion does not trigger a world war, it could still fail. Despite years of preparation and an almost complete control of the sea and the sky, the landings in Normandy were incredibly perilous and sometimes examined the risk of defeat. The success came at a great cost in life, by a great competence, and sometimes a little luck. More than 4,400 allied soldiers would have died in the first 24 hours only, with many more injured.

In addition, obtaining forces on land is only part of the challenge. Taiwans geography is not suitable for Rapid movement inside the land And in similar historical cases, which led to significant victims and additional delays.

THE Battle of Anzio During the invasion of Italy in 1944, for example, recorded tens of thousands of victims when the allies had trouble getting out of the bridgehead. Likewise, Gallipoli in 1915Repeated failures to move inside the land have seen the Allied forces undergo hundreds of thousands of victims to possibly withdraw.

As a historian who loves China, I can only hope that these prototypes will remain right and that will join the list of other forgotten moments in the history of the world. Otherwise, the conflicts that we have seen since the Cold War and even those of recent years may seem minors compared to what could be unleashed following an invasion of Taiwan.