With movements on Afghanistan, China and Russia, Joe Biden cleans up after Donald Trump

WASHINGTON – On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden announced the end of his country’s 20-year involvement in the war in Afghanistan. A day later, he appeared to start a new cold war with Russia.

The experts I spoke with cautioned against any excessive conclusion of the juxtaposition of these two events. “I’m always a little reluctant to be part of the pool of unified foreign policy theories, you know, ‘Are we seeing the emergence of a Biden doctrine?’ There is always so much more pragmatic publicity to these things than I think is appropriate for it, ”said Laurel Miller of the International Crisis Group.

Yet, combined with recent more hostile relations with China, the two announcements mark the closing of one chapter in US foreign and national security, and a focus on the next.

Biden announced that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would begin on May 1 and would be complete before the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack that launched the country on the path to this war. “The war in Afghanistan was never meant to be a multigenerational endeavor. We have been attacked. We entered the war with clear objectives. We have achieved these goals, ”Biden said in a speech Wednesday. “It’s time to end the war forever.”

Despite Biden’s claims of goals achieved, no one is declaring the US victory – after 20 years, $ 2 trillion, and 2,300 deaths in the US, nothing like a victory seems possible at this point. “We cannot continue the cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan in the hope of creating the ideal conditions for our withdrawal, pending a different outcome,” Biden said.

The timing of the announcement coincides with a deal former President Donald Trump struck with the Taliban to pull out by May 1, and comes despite warnings that a US pullout could lead to a resumption of the grip. control of the country by the Taliban and a brutal humanitarian crisis.

“There weren’t any good decisions,” Miller says of the choice Biden faced. “There is no decision he could make that would be widely viewed as a good decision.”

As a glimpse into Biden’s emerging foreign policy, Miller says that “ripping the bandage” now shows he’s cleaning up the bridges of an issue he doesn’t want to own like three former presidents did.

“On a tough decision, the easiest thing to do is something that’s more like doing nothing,” Miller says. “He is certainly more decisive than Obama in this regard. I think it’s something to watch out for when the inevitable foreign policy crises occur.

Then Thursday, Biden announced economic sanctions against Russia and the expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats from Washington. It is a response to Russia’s attempts to influence the 2020 US election, the occupation of Crimea, and the SolarWinds hack. Bloomberg said the sanctions on the purchase of Russian foreign debt announced by Biden were seen as a diplomatic “nuclear option”. Although the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Russia, the former president has refused to openly condemn the country. On Thursday, Biden aligned his rhetoric with the announced government policy.

“If Russia continues to interfere with American democracy, I am ready to go further,” Biden said Thursday afternoon at the White House. He said he hoped Russia would de-escalate and allow a more stable relationship between the two countries, but that “when Russia seeks to interfere with the United States, we will respond.”

Miller said the move shared, with Biden’s move in Afghanistan, the quality of the “cleanup.” “There is clearly an interest in the Biden administration separating itself from the way the Trump administration has handled Russia and being clear about being more decisive,” Miller said.

The more aggressive posture towards Russia threatens to escalate tensions in a re-emerging cold war between countries, something senior administration officials have said Biden hoped to avoid. Earlier this week, Biden sent an invitation to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for a summit in a third country. “We hope for a de-escalation. We hope for a stable and predictable way forward, ”said one. “But it’s – it’s really a question for Russia.”

It comes at a time when relations between the United States and China have also become more openly divisive – a US-China summit in Alaska last month saw accusations of “tribulation” and “gunpowder and drama.” exchanged between diplomats.

University of Toronto US foreign policy expert Seva Gunitsky sees a long-emerging shift in US priorities. “This is part of a shift in the guiding principle of US foreign policy from anti-terrorism to big-power competition. It’s a pivot that has been building for some time, but it also means that Afghanistan is becoming a lower priority than China and Russia.

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As to what that might mean for Canada – joining the US alongside the EU, UK and Australia in imposing sanctions in response to Russia’s continued occupation of Crimea – Gunitsky says it’s not clear. “It is very difficult to speculate on what this means for Canada. Either way, relations with China and Russia are not great, and if the United States takes a more antagonistic position in countries like Ukraine, where Canada has already shown its willingness to intervene, then I expect Canada and the United States to continue to come even closer. on these issues. “

The Afghanistan ruling may have a more obvious effect in Canada, according to U of T historian and international relations expert Robert Bothwell. As others have noted, the US withdrawal is likely to result in the displacement of tens or hundreds of thousands of refugees. Eliot A. Cohen of Johns Hopkins University argued that the United States has a moral obligation to welcome them. Bothwell says Canada could end up doing it. “A lot of them will come here,” he said. “Obviously, like the Vietnamese refugees, many of them will consider coming here, whether it’s because the Americans won’t let them in or if they prefer to. We will therefore bear the cost. I don’t think it will be like Syria. But I’m sure we’re looking at between 10,000 or 20,000 for Canada. ”

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