Multipault earthquakes – it’s complicated

Wednesday 15 July 2020 at 12:16 pm. Press release: Seismological Committee

EQC funded research at the University of Canterbury tries to determine where errors can cause each other, creating a large multi-error earthquake, and estimating what could be the maximum magnitude.

Lead researcher Dr. Tim Stahl says that the Kaikoura earthquake was the most complex multi-fault earthquake ever recorded, while other recent earthquakes involved more than one error.

“Earthquakes that tear through multiple faults not only affect a larger area, but also increase the amount of energy emitted, which creates stronger earthquakes,” says Dr. Stahl.

“So it’s really important to understand more about multi-error earthquakes,” he says.

Dr. Stahl explains that if the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake had just ripped the first mistake, Hume’s fault, it would have been a 7-megawatt earthquake. But because it was the first of 20 other flaws, it combined in a 7.8-megawatt earthquake – 16 times more powerful.

“We really need to get a better idea of ​​where this is going and the impact it can have on the surface of the earth, on infrastructure like water and electricity, and on buildings,” he says.

Now researchers can get detailed data on earthquakes through GeoNet, as earthquakes torn across multiple failures seem to be “the new normal,” says Joe Horrocks, head of flexibility and research at EQC.

“Understanding more about how, when and where these types of multi-error earthquakes may occur is critical to understanding the risks of natural hazards in New Zealand. Dr. Stahl’s work combining a set of factors that lead to multi-fault earthquakes will be a very valuable contribution to understanding our seismic risks And take action to reduce impact. “

Dr. Stahl says that while the standardized forecast for earthquake rupture in California is the current “gold standard” for understanding multi-fault earthquakes internationally, there is a much greater need for New Zealand conditions.

“When you look at the cause and location of an earthquake across the faults, you are looking at factors such as the distance between errors and whether the error is going straight or at an angle. However, in New Zealand we also want to be able to take into account how our rock types behave under Seismic pressure and what happens with errors that are classified as “inactive”.

Dr. Stahl says that so far, the criteria for multi-error earthquakes have been considered thresholds in black and white. His research introduces “blurry logic” to group all related factors together, providing a range of scenarios for what might happen.

“We want to be able to understand how all of these factors can combine to make some rupture scenarios more likely than others. In the end, the question we ask is” What is the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that can occur at a particular site? “Says Dr. Stahl.

Computer modeling testing against real data is an important part of the project.

“We have a large amount of data from Kaikoura and Darfield to Edgcombe,” says Dr. Stahl. “This gives us a great basis for modeling testing and making sure it works well for New Zealand conditions.

“Better models mean that we can provide better information about the probability and impact of future multi-crash earthquakes for emergency managers, councils, infrastructure providers, and the public.”

Dr. Stahl says the project will focus on an area where no detailed investigation has yet been conducted between Wau and Blenheim, where there are known errors that may explode in multiple earthquakes for future errors.

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