The FICCI survey predicts a 4.5% contraction in India’s FY21 GDP, Auto News, ET Auto

New Delhi: With economic activity stalled between the Covid-19 pandemic and the blockade, the Indian economy is expected to record a negative growth rate of 4.5 percent in the current financial year, according to the FICCI Outlook Economic Survey.

The minimum and maximum growth estimates stood at (-) 6.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, for VF21, he said. Average quarterly forecasts showed 14.2 percent shrinkage in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of FY21, he added.

Signs of an imminent slowdown have been severely highlighted by blockage caused by Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid-19 pandemic has hit global and domestic growth hard.

The current survey round, conducted in June, drew responses from key economists representing the industry, banking and financial services sectors.

The wise annual forecast of economic activity showed an average growth of 2.7 percent for agriculture and allied activities for VF21. Agriculture seems to be the only sector with a silver lining.

There’s a noticeable upheaval in terms of monsoon performance this year with enough water in the reservoirs, he said.

The rural sector, backed by a sustainable agricultural performance and hopefully a limited number of Covid-19 cases, will be a major demand generator this year, according to the survey.

Further, direct income support through PM-KISAN and increased allocation to MGNREGA were helping returning migrants, lending to the rural economy, he said.

The industry and services sectors are expected to contract with 11.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. “Weak demand and degraded use of capacity were emerging in an investment pullback, and the pandemic has further extended the recovery timeframe,” she said.

Although activity in some sectors, such as consumer sustainability and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), is gaining traction, most companies still operate at low capacity utilization rates. Job availability and poor demand remain key issues.

Therefore, fresh investment would be difficult to achieve in the near-average period, the study predicted.

Lack of demand stimulus, a second wave of pandemic and continued social distancing measures and quarantine would weigh heavily on growth prospects, he said.

“With the demand and perspective of silent investment, strong government spending has been the only savior. However, growth is likely to end after the second quarter of FY21,” the FICCI survey said.

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