In the latest bid offer for the Brexit deal, Leaders’ Theaters show shares

LONDONR It can be difficult, in the height of a high-stakes bargain, to separate theater from substance, and so it was on Saturday evening when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shut it down. the phone after a long call.

Ms von der Leyen said Britain and the European Union would send their negotiators back to the table in a final attempt to close the gaps by holding an agreement on their post-Brexit trade relations. Mr Johnsons aides released a vivid photo of him on the phone, gesturing in the glow of an old-fashioned table lamp, like a wartime prime minister fighting on behalf of his country.

On Monday, the two leaders will speak again to determine whether an agreement can be reached within a December 31st deadline. If not, the European Union will start imposing tariffs on British goods. Four and a half years after the British voted closely to leave the union, the final act of the long Brexit drama is near.

With such an uncertain outcome, Britain and the European Union are preparing their domestic audiences either for a landmark agreement that will require compromise from both sides or for a split that will disrupt cross-channel trade, bringing Britain and Europe into an unexplored territory.

No one disputes that there are genuine differences between the two sides, ranging from state aid to fisheries rights.

There is still a distance to travel and the distance has not yet been covered because it involves concessions that are painful, said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group political risk consultancy. This is part of the reason why both sides have a full interest in being seen to be fighting.

This is especially true for Mr Johnson, who won the election last year by promising to end Brexit. Under the terms of the withdrawal agreement he signed with Brussels, Britain formally left the European Union last January. But she agreed to abide by the bloc’s rules and regulations for an 11-month transition period until the two prepare more permanent trade arrangements.

Now, Mr Johnson will have to decide whether the demands of the European Trade Unions are too much of a threat to his vision of British sovereignty. He knows that reaching an agreement seen as a betrayal of Brexit could be toxic, ruining his relationship with the Conservative Party faction that helped him in power. The same Brexiteers ruthlessly disposed of Mr. Johnsons predecessor Theresa May.

After months of fierce negotiations, the two sides are fighting over the same issues that have divided them from the beginning: state aid to industries known as equal conditions and the European Union’s entry into British fishing waters.

Fishing has become a busy issue as French President Emmanuel Macron, who is facing his next election in 2022, has pushed for continued access to French fishing fleets. Mr Johnson has made big promises to fishermen in his home country, who have complained for years about sharing Brittany waters with mainland vessels, which in some areas can catch far more than British ones.

Although economically insignificant its annual contribution to the Britains economy is less than that of London fashion store Harrods, the fishing industry is politically totemic because of its importance to coastal towns, where there are few other sources of employment.

Last week, French Prime Minister Jean Castex visited the port of Boulogne-sur-Mer, in Frances, far north, to reassure fishermen. The countries’ European minister, Clment Beaune, warned that Paris would veto any unsatisfactory trade deals. Because Britain sells so much of the fish it catches within the European Union, analysts believe a deal is in the interest of both parties and therefore will not be the cause of a collapse.

Perhaps more difficult to bridge is the gap over fair competition rules, an issue where both sides still talk in front of each other.

Mr Johnson says that since Britain only wants a basic free trade agreement similar to the one Canada reached with the European Union, Britain should not be bound by European rules. But officials in Brussels fear Britain, as a large economy on the brink of Europe, could adopt lower labor or environmental standards, flood the European market and lower continental enterprises.

Mr Johnson seems willing to maintain existing standards that Britain agreed to as a member of the European Union, but not to adopt what Brussels may set in the future. For him, analysts said, this is a matter of sovereignty and independence, which he sees as the main Brexit dividend.

However, the fear in continental Europe is that this could effectively give Britain a veto on future European policy. For ambitious leaders like Mr Macron, this would threaten the sovereignty of the European Union at a time when he and others are seeking a more muscular role in the global economy.

It is about the EU which is a geopolitical platform in the world, having a voice in the competition with China and in its relations with the new Biden administration in the US, said Mr. Rahman.

Mr Johnson must also consider his relationship with President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., who opposed Brexit.

The Johnson government recently introduced legislation giving it the power to retaliate against parts of its withdrawal agreement with the European Union dealing with Northern Ireland. This antagonized the Europeans, but also upset Mr. Biden, because such moves could lead to the return of a strong border to the island of Ireland.

Mr. Biden warned Mr. Johnson to do nothing in his Brexit negotiations that would threaten the Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. If London and Brussels reach a trade agreement, Mr. Johnson would almost certainly remove the language of insult from the legislation.

In the meantime, however, his ministers insist they will continue with the Northern Ireland bill, which is scheduled to return to the House of Commons on Monday. This could inject another flammable element into the conversation. Over time, analysts are nervous that any miscalculation could lead to a breakdown in talks with the European Union.

If both sides were prepared to jump on an equal footing, you could see an agreement, said David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, a research institute.

Any prime minister would prefer an agreement, he added. Henig, but Boris Johnson has relied on himself in a big corner and as all logic goes towards a deal, momentum and emotion are opposing.