Scotland Election Results Complicate Hopes for Independence Referendum

LONDONR Hopes for a speedy path to independence in Scotland were dashed on Saturday as the dominant Scottish nationalist party was projected to fall two places less of a majority in the country’s parliament.

The results of the Scottish National Parties, though impressive, seem to have deprived him of a symbolic victory in a close-knit election. This, in turn, is likely to solidify the determination of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deny Scottish voters the opportunity to hold a second referendum on independence.

However, pro-independence parties remained in control and even expanded their overall majority in the vote, held on Thursday, which will keep the flame of Scottish nationalism alive and ensure that the threat of Scottish secession from the UK will continue to destroy British politics.

The number of seats won by the Scottish National Party is in some ways less important than the political winds that still blow in the direction of the separatists. By allying with the pro-independence Scottish Greens, Scottish nationalists will strengthen their control over the regional Parliament.

Party leaders have signaled they will put a second referendum at the top of the agenda after Scotland recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The last time Scots voted for independence, in 2014, they decided to stay in the UK with 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Polls show close to a 50-50 split on the question now, with support for the split having weakened in recent months.

While frustrating for Scottish nationalists, the apparent lack of a clear majority could ultimately work to their advantage, giving them time to build support for a referendum instead of being stamped on an immediate campaign by the pressure of a mandate. overwhelming.

The result, however, would be a relief to Mr Johnson, for whom the break-up of the UK breaks down as a potentially defining event for his prime ministership. He remains deeply unpopular in Scotland and it is unclear how prepared his government is to counter a lively push for Scottish independence.

For his part, Mr Johnson was playing into the Conservative Party victories in regional elections across England, which left the opposition Labor Party in disarray and strengthened its reputation as a resilient voter. Yet some of the same post-Brexit populism that won Conservative votes in parts of the working class of the Midlands and northern England worked against him in a more liberal and more hated Scotland than Brexit.

Mr Johnson vowed to reject demands for a referendum, saying that as Britain emerged from the pandemic, the country should focus on rebuilding the economy rather than fighting for constitutional issues.

“I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless,” he told The Daily Telegraph on Friday. I think there is no case right now for such a thing. I do not think that is what the times demand at all.

This is unlikely to stop pro-independence leaders like Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, who announced historic and extraordinary results, and promised to urges for another referendum.

Speaking in Glasgow on Saturday, Ms. Sturgeon said there was no democratic justification for Boris Johnson or anyone else seeking to block the right of the people of Scotland to choose our future.

She and other officials were claiming a mandate like the one in 2011, when the Scottish National Party last won an absolute majority and called for a referendum. Mr Johnsons’ predecessor, David Cameron, complied with their request.

He saw that he had a clear democratic mandate for her and will have another clear democratic mandate this time, Lorna Slater, a Scottish Greens leader of the British Broadcasting Corporation, told Saturday. What kind of country are we if we ignore that kind of democratic mandate?

Analysts said the independence cause could be aided by a tug-of-war with the Westminster government, as it would alienate Scottish voters, potentially driving more of them into the separatist camp. There is also the prospect of fierce legal battles, potentially ending up in the Britains High Court if the Scots threaten to continue with a referendum against London.

This is not a bad thing for the SNP, because Nicola Sturgeon has said that our priority is to solve Covid first, said Nicola McEwen, a professor of politics at the University of Edinburgh. The nationalists, she noted, also still have no answers to difficult questions about what would happen to the border.

The problems in Northern Ireland, which emerged from Brexit with a hybrid status as part of the United Kingdom but without a land border with the Republic of Ireland, underscore the difficulties of even a partial separation from the union. Economists warn that the cost of leaving Scotland would be deep.

Pro-independence sentiment in Scotland was fueled by the Brexit referendum in 2016, which a majority of Scots voted against. Many in Scotland would like to reunite with the European Union and see an independence referendum as a step in that direction.

This is one reason that Professor McEwen and other analysts predict that Scotland would not hold a referendum on feral cats, as the European Union and other governments would have no knowledge of the results.

Mr Johnson, analysts said, would certainly seek to weaken pro-independence sentiment by pouring money into Scotland. If the pressure continues to rise, he could offer to delegate more authority to the Scottish Government.

Under conditions of limited self-government in the UK, the Scottish authorities are responsible for issues such as health and education, while the British government deals with immigration, foreign policy and fiscal policy.

Mr Johnsons’ aim, analysts said, would be to play for time, delaying any referendum until after the next British general election, which is expected to be held in 2024. But repeatedly rejecting Scottish calls could fail. .

There is a view in Westminster that denying a referendum will only ignite a sense of independence, said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk adviser. This is not a problem that is disappearing. It will only get bigger over time.

For Mrs. Sturgeon as leader of the Scottish National Party, failure to win a clear majority would be deflation. Such a mandate seemed within her grasp last summer when she was taking credit for directing Scotland ‘s response to the coronavirus, an approach that was more cautious than Mr. Johnsons and seemed, for a time, to give better results.

But the Britains, a successful vaccine success, obscured the changes, and death and incidence rates in Scotland, while somewhat lower than those in England, are not that far off. Analysts cited the British vaccine campaign as a factor in the modest decline in support for independence, which was over 50 per cent in opinion polls for most of last year.

Furthermore, Ms. Sturgeon, 50, became embroiled in a bitter feud with her predecessor, Alex Salmond, over an internal investigation into allegations of sexual conduct against him. She was accused of defrauding lawmakers, breaking the rules and even plotting against Mr Salmond, a former close ally.

Ms. Sturgeon was cleared of breaking the rules and cheating Parliament just as the campaign began, but the dispute damaged her image. Mr. Salmond started a breakaway party, Alba, which did not appear on the right track to win any seats but served as a reminder of internal division.

This year has been quite difficult for the SNP and for Nicola Sturgeon personally, said Professor McEwen. Also, she added, the Wide Shoulders of the UK have helped us see through the pandemic.