Experts warn that the winter flu season can be large

London — Mass vaccination campaigns are underway across developed countries, but many continue to fight against new strains such as the surge in coronavirus infections and the highly infectious delta mutants.

And now, health experts warn the public that the flu season could continue to be very difficult.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about the 2021-2022 flu season,” epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the Covid-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas, told CNBC.

“Similar to Covid, if you recover from a seasonal flu infection, you will retain some immunity to protect you from future infections, at least for a short period of time. Covid’s mitigation measures prevented the flu infection last year. There are many people who have been infected recently. “

“Therefore, we can enter the flu season with a higher level of susceptibility than usual, which can exacerbate the risk,” she added.

Anselmyers believes that whether this year’s flu season will be more severe may depend on both the evolution of the virus and decisions at the individual level.

“As we learned from the last 18 months of the Covid-19 pandemic, decisions made as individuals and communities can have a significant impact on the fate of an outbreak. Your role in preventing the catastrophic flu season. It can and should be done, by being vaccinated earlier this fall and taking wise precautions if the virus begins to spread, “she said.

“Our experience at Covid can lead to behavioral changes that work in our favor. People take the flu vaccine, wear face masks, and prevent infection during peak seasons. You may be willing to take other precautions to prevent the flu. “

A warning about the potentially bad winter flu season was raised in June by Professor Chris Whitti, Chief Medical Officer in the United Kingdom.

“There will be some very serious Covid surges, people will minimize contact and respiratory viruses will decrease, or people will return to a more normal life, there are some Covids, but that’s it. In addition, there is a surge in influenza, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus, a common respiratory virus that usually causes mild cold-like symptoms) in children. “

“I think we need to be aware of the fact that the coming winter can be pretty difficult and be prepared for it,” he said.

Influenza figures in the United States and the United Kingdom show a reduction in influenza illness during the pandemic. This is primarily due to social distance measures being implemented to prevent infection. U.S. during the 2019-2020 flu season Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza and pneumonia, a life-threatening complication of influenza that often affects the elderly, were predicted to be associated with 38 million illnesses, 405,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. The CDC emphasized that the numbers are just estimates.

However, during the 2020-2021 season, the CDC told CNBC that influenza activity was low last winter, so “in the United States, it is enough to use a model to estimate the burden of influenza in the United States. There were no flu illnesses or flu-related hospitalizations. ” From 2020 to 2021. “

Lynnette Brammer, team leader of the CDC’s national influenza surveillance team, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“For example, during the three pre-pandemic seasons, weekly peak rates for influenza-positive respiratory viruses ranged from 26.2% to 30.3%, but last season the proportion of influenza-positive respiratory viruses remained low. Over 0.4% during each week of the typical flu season. “

For comparison, in England and Wales, the total number of deaths from influenza and pneumonia in 2018 was 29,516 in England and Wales, and 26,398 in 2019. Similar to the United States, there was a sharp decline in 2020, killing 15,437 people associated with (and due to) influenza and pneumonia.

Whitti’s comments were repeated by Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. Niall Ferguson also advised the British government on its Covid strategy.

He agreed that “seasonal flu is likely to be a serious problem” from autumn to winter.

“All the measures we have taken against the Covids around the world have brought the flu to very low levels, and basically we weren’t infected with the flu last year, so our immunity was a little weakened … potentially very. I think we need to be prepared for a serious flu. It was prevalent later this year, “he told the BBC’s” Today “show in late June.