Health
Models show that COVID spread slows this winter if these two key conditions are met :: WRAL.com
New predictions from epidemiologists at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill draw a positive picture of herd immunity and fewer COVID-19 cases throughout the coming winter.
Justin Wrestler is one of the coordinators COVID-19 Scenario Modeling HubIt is a collaborative effort between universities across the country, getting forecasts from teams across the country and balancing statistically.
According to the latest North Carolina projections, the peak of coronavirus infection from the delta type has already been reached.
Newly Reported COVID-19 Case, North Carolina Death
Cases and deaths confirmed in the new laboratory were reported by an agency from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. COVID-19 dashboard.. The dashboard began publishing the number of cases on March 13th and the number of deaths on March 26th. These case and mortality numbers may be slightly delayed based on the time it takes the lab to process the test and the health authorities to confirm the case, so a 7-day move to show the case curve. average. Note: This chart includes cases and deaths identified by antigen testing, which DHHS began reporting on its dashboard on September 25. Read the fix details and compare the changes here.
Source: NC DHHS
Graphics: Tyler Dukes, WRAL
It suggests that if children are vaccinated and new, more infectious variants do not emerge, the pandemic could be almost memorable by next spring.
The wrestler and his team are optimistic because so many people in the United States are vaccinated or infected with COVID. “It produces immunity, which ultimately has the effect of taking people away for the virus to infect, and is like running out of fuel for the virus’s fire,” he said. “It causes the virus to start receding.”
He warns that two contingencies-the vaccination of children and the existence of new variants-make all the difference.
Predictions, including the development of new, more infectious variants, show elevated cases in early 2022. UNC-Chapel Hill virologist Dark Ditman believes that the scenario is for vacation trips and that the virus is constantly evolving.
“Maybe we’ll see another variant that spreads better,” he said. “But it is very different whether the variant will lead to more hospitalizations.”
Ditman says increased vaccination and immunity should help reduce the lethality of the next wave.
“If the vaccine level isn’t reached, or if the vaccine doesn’t last as long as you think, everything will be reset to zero. That’s a much scarier scenario I’m worried about,” he said. ..
Wrestlers are more optimistic, but they don’t want people to think they can relax. The delta wave is not over yet.
“If you ask me, it’s a bad situation right now, but it’s going to get better, so be careful for weeks or months. Eventually you can start a little more relaxed. ” He said.
Coronavirus vaccination in North Carolina
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