When 511 epidemiologists expect to fly, hug, and do 18 other routine activities again

Despite the coronavirus, many epidemiologists have already gone to doctors to socialize with small groups and bring in mail. However, it takes more than a year before many say they are willing to go to a concert, sporting event, or religious facility unless there is an effective vaccine or cure in the first place. Others never hug people by hugging or shaking hands.

These were asked by 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists asked when the New York Times expected to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and public health response would evolve as expected. The group’s personal opinion.

Their response is not a general guideline, but rather expectations of respondents’ individual living conditions, risk tolerance, and when COVID-19’s extensive testing, contact tracking, treatment, and vaccination will occur. I am incorporating it. They said that it is these things that determine their actions because the virus sets the timeline.

“The answer has nothing to do with calendar time,” said Christie McLambrock of Albany University.

Yet, as policymakers lift restrictions and nationwide protests over police atrocities, epidemiologists, like everyone else, do what they do, despite uncertainty. Have to make their own decisions about. However, they are likely to be immersed in data on COVID-19 and are trained in how to think about the dynamics and risks of infectious diseases.

They mostly agreed that outdoor activities and small groups are safer indoors and in the crowd, and masks are needed for a long time.

“Fresh air, the sun, socializing, and healthy activities are as important to my mental health as my physical health,” said Anala Gossai, a scientist at Flatiron Health, a health technology company. .. summer.

Some people said they would refrain from almost all 20 activities until a vaccine against the virus was widely distributed. Others said they would wait for the vaccine to do the listed indoor activities.

“I hate working from home, but I think working in a shared indoor space is the most dangerous thing we do,” said Sally Pisiott of the University of California, Berkeley. .. Wait at least one year before returning to the office.

Answers were collected during the last week of May, when George Floyd died during police detention, spurring protests across the country. Some epidemiologists said these mass gatherings are likely to cause an increase in incidents.

“There is a risk, Attack the community with a pandemicSaid Andrew Rowland of the University of New Mexico.

There were major disagreements about some activities.

Some replied that hair salons were relatively safe, others said they were usually not crowded and had hygiene requirements, but some say that face-to-face contact poses a high risk of haircuts. did. 41% go now or this summer, but 19% plan to wait at least a year. One-third said they would attend a dinner party at a friend’s house this summer, often outdoors with proper distances, and one-fifth more than a year before being vaccinated. Said to wait.

Epidemiologists say they make decisions based on publicly available data about the area, such as infections and tests. Before choosing whether to perform an activity, you may want to assess whether people are wearing masks, if physical distances are possible, and if there are alternatives. They say they can become uncomfortable with certain activities over time because of the potential for a second wave of infection.

Like everyone, they are also considering practical considerations. Even if you think it’s safer to stay at home, you need to go to the office or hospital every day. The need for parenting and caring for the elderly forces difficult choices. Activities that look like options, such as attending a concert, are easier to avoid. More than 70% of the respondents said that they, or someone within their household, was at high risk of serious illness or death from this illness.

With a recent PhD, Melissa Sharp will soon travel to Europe to begin her fellowship. But for now, while staying in Florida with her family, including her high-risk relatives, she is very careful and avoids activities that she considers “cocooning” and less dangerous than flying. It was

He said one of her quarantine hobbies was epidemiology-inspired. “That’s “well, it depends,” because it’s really our slogan. “

Scientists weigh the risks of coronavirus against the benefits of certain activities, including emotional well-being. While both funerals and weddings carry risks by bringing together a large number of people, some said they would prioritize attending the funeral. Some people choose to socialize and send their children to camps because of benefits such as mental health, education, and family harmony.

Sharp said she would consider dating after the period of imprisonment.

“I’m young and single, and gals can only last so long in the modern world,” she said.

For Robert A. Smith of the American Cancer Society, haircuts may be worth the risk. “It’s a really dangerous trade-off between a mullet and yourself in the mirror.”

At times, their expertise and personal life clash. Aya’s Heider of Ohio State University said he was giving advice to the mosque on how to resume and conduct prayer on Friday.

“Balancing public health practices with religious obligations has made me very open and humble as a scholar,” he said.

Many epidemiologists said they may never again greet people in the same way. 42% of the samples say they will not hug or shake hands for more than a year, and 6% will never do it again.

“The worst victim of the epidemic is “loss of human contact,” said Eduardo Franco of McGill University in Montreal.

Carl V. Phillips, the owner of Epiphi Consulting, laments:

About 6,000 epidemiologists were invited to participate in the study, and the study was circulated to members of the Institute of Epidemiologic Studies and individual scientists. Some people said that it was uncomfortable to make predictions based on time because they didn’t want to guess the timing of a particular treatment or infection data.

“Our concern is that your multiple-choice option is based solely on calendar time,” wrote 301 epidemiologists. “This limits our ability to provide expert opinion as to when we feel safe enough to stop reducing our social distance.”

More than three-quarters of the panel said their daily work was somehow associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost three-quarters work in academia, 10% work in government, and the rest work as non-profit, private companies, or healthcare providers.

A survey of ordinary Americans believes that many people who are not trained in epidemiology take more than a few months before many common activities can become routine again. is showing. According to a recent study by Morning Consult, more than a quarter of Americans haven’t visited malls for more than six months and about a third haven’t gone to gyms, movies and concerts.

One thing that epidemiologists seem to agree with is that they act differently for a long time, even when they return to normal activity, such as interacting with external friends or online. Was to attend the worship in. The majority said it would take more than a year before they stopped wearing masks routinely outside their homes.

B. Bristol-Myers Squibb Associate Director T.

“First I told them:’The world has changed and has long been different. This is our lifetime crisis and we need to accept it,” he said. “But it depressed them, so he says, “well, we know more every day.” “

Additional comments on life and social distance from epidemiologists

School, Camp, Day Care:

“For young children, I think the developmental risk outweighs the risk of getting sick with COVID.”

— John C. Nelson, Precision for Medicine, this summer

“Ideally wait until the vaccine is available, but the real work means that I have to send the vaccine back when school restarts.”

—Catherine Reeves, University of Massachusetts Amherst, wait until fall

“This is not a low-risk activity, but we want to take more risk because it is “necessary” than any other low-risk activity. “

— Christina Mare, University of Pittsburgh, This Summer

“This is a horrible question. My child desperately needs friends and a formal learning environment, but I don’t necessarily want to send them!”

— Alicia Zagel, Children’s Minnesota Institute, wait until fall

“We do not fully understand the long-term consequences of COVID-19 infection in children.”

— Alicia Riley of UC San Francisco waits for over a year

Sports events, concerts and plays:

“For me this is a luxury and I can wait a long time for people to get together safely and have fun. However, as if I’m participating in a donation I support the art program We will continue to support you.”

— Joseph Wagner, US Air Force Department of Aerospace Medicine, waits over a year

“These are some of the riskiest activities and probably attract more risk-taking people. Adding alcohol or drugs makes these activities too dangerous for immediate consideration.”

— Vivian Towe, patient-centered outcomes lab, waits over a year

“It’s not just about the risk of infection for an individual, but also about their feelings of social responsibility. A large gathering is a contact-tracking nightmare, what is safe, or how people are screened. It looks like they should be shut down until you really understand what to do.”

— Washington University’s Steve Mooney waits for over a year

“I will do this if social distances are enforced and all attendees have to wear masks.”

— Tamion Nelson of the Marion County Public Health Department waits until the fall.

About hugs and handshake:

“I hug my friend today if she needs a hug. If my friend benefits from the hug, I hug her.”

— Haley Holmer of the World Health Organization now

“A real epidemiologist does not shake hands.”

—T. Christopher Bond, Bristol-Myers Squibb, said he would never do this again

“I think the handshake is dead. In the distant future, I’ll hug some personal contacts as greetings as needed.”

—Puriyanka Goguna of Queens University said it would never do this again

“If we get a good vaccine, perhaps the first thing I do is increase the hugs.”

— Christina Ludema, Indiana University, wait for over a year

“I prefer to greet people with traditional clapping hands, with the hands of Namascar or with traditional Lozi greetings.”

— Ramya Kumar, Zambart Project, do it now

About weddings and funerals:

“It doesn’t make sense to endanger people’s lives for celebration. What a tragedy.”

— Claudia A. Salinas, Eli Lilly and Co., wait for over a year

“Wedding-until there is a vaccine. Funeral-if it’s someone very close to me and the service is small, I might consider going.”

— Nicole Frasino of University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill waits for over a year

“It depends on who’s funeral. I missed it because my father’s funeral was COVID, but I still regret it.”

— Raluca Ionescu-Ittu, Analysis Group Inc., waiting for over a year

“Sharing such moments helps us maintain our humanity. As long as we take special precautions, we will not be there for our family and friends.”

— Martine El Bejjani, University of Beirut, USA, Will Do It This Summer

airplane:

“I won’t fly right away unless I have a choice.”

— Liialkowski, US Department of Veterans Affairs, waits over a year

“Bacteria flight tube.”

— Chelsea Richard, South Carolina First Steps, wait until winter

“Planning all local vacations in the future.”

— Ellen Chang, Exponent, wait for over a year

“The precautions look good.”

— Randall Reves, University of Colorado, do it now

“I will bring my blanket or sheets with my food and water, multiple masks (in case of discomfort), gloves, hand sanitizer, and wipes.”

— Michaela George, George Washington University, do it now

Meetings with new people:

“Life needs to last someday. I’m not dating at the moment, but I’m a 35 year old woman. I don’t want to stop my life for more than a few months before this pandemic disappears.”

— Tali Elfassy, ​​University of Miami, this summer

“This pandemic, thesis, and online dating situation had a huge impact on my dear life.”

— Kendra D. Sims, Oregon State University, This Summer

“If I could send my child back to school in the fall, I should be able to send myself around the world and meet other people as needed.”

— Marilyn Tseng, Cal Poly, wait until winter

“This is difficult because dating seems to have fewer options than going to play or going to the gym, for example. I have a biological clock to worry about, so I can imagine it’s safe. Only if they are self-isolated and both wear masks, avoid physical contact, and have meetings outdoors.”

— Alicia Riley of the University of California, San Francisco will do it this summer

When to stop wearing masks:

“If the coronavirus pandemic is over and there are no other pathogenic respiratory pathogens circulating, in some situations we may consider not wearing a mask. From now on we will always wear a mask on an airplane .”

— Texas A&M University, Jean Brender, wait for over a year

“I love getting faster. I hate wearing masks.”

— Steve Mooney, University of Washington, wait until winter

“It’s hard to know when the right time to quit facecover is, but given the very little inconvenience for significant gains, everyone is rushing to rush this practice. Is hard to believe.”

— University of California San Francisco Amy Padula waits for over a year

About visiting elderly people:

“It’s been a long time without hugging my mother, but she’s probably at high risk.”

— Sally Picciot, University of California, Berkeley, waits over a year

“This is the most difficult problem.”

— Clermont E. Dionne, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada, waiting for over a year

“Older people are at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19, but we also need to be aware of the true risk of loneliness.”

— Heather Limper, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, this summer

“I find this decision the most annoying because it means that, as I can see them, I have decided that the risks to them are worth it.”

— Mercedes Carneton, Northwestern University, wait until spring