Covid cases may have stopped declining, major English studies show | Coronavirus

Cases of coronavirus may no longer be seen EnglandAccording to a major survey that raises concerns about whether new variants can be included in blockade measures, as the UK reported record daily deaths.

Boris Johnson described the 1,820 deaths reported Wednesday as “horrifying” and warned that “more will happen in the future.”

Scientists at Imperial College London analyzed more than 142,000 swab tests across England between January 6th and 15th. This suggests that new infections may have declined recently, but are now stable and perhaps slightly increased. decline.

In the Imperial React-1 infection survey, 1.58% of people tested were infected with the virus, an increase of 74% compared to the previous survey conducted from November 25th to December 3rd.

Infection was highest at 2.51% between the ages of 18 and 24, and the latest survey found that the most vulnerable age over 65 was more than doubled at 0.94%.

Scientists estimate the R-value (the average number of people infected) to be 1.04 in the United Kingdom. The epidemic expands when R is above 1 and contracts when R is below 1.

However, the study reveals regional differences, which could level off in London and eastern England, decrease in the southwest, where R is estimated to be 0.37, and increase in Yorkshire and East Midland.

Virus levels were highest in London, positive in 2.8% of survey tests, lowest in the southwest, with a prevalence of 0.53%.

In response to a new record of deaths, the Prime Minister said more contagious variants discovered late last year are now present in almost every part of the UK.

“The infection rate across the country now seems to be peaking or flat, but it’s not flattening so quickly and it’s clear that we need to keep track of this. We maintain discipline and formation. , We must continue to monitor the blockade, “he said.

Imperial scientists have warned that pressure on the NHS shows no sign of giving up.

“The NHS is very resilient and has all sorts of emergency measures in place, but we need to reduce the prevalence, because otherwise there is the same pressure from prevalence to hospitalization. [intensive care] Paul Elliott, a professor of epidemiology and public health medicine at the Imperial University, said:

Although the data appear to be inconsistent with the decreasing trend of new cases reported daily earlier this week, Elliott is an empire to test people on a regular basis, especially after they develop the disease, rather than picking up the infection. I believe the investigation may be more advanced than the official figures. I went through the process of taking symptoms and testing.

“We think we are ahead [community testing] It’s the second pillar of data, which could level off in the next few days, but obviously we need to monitor it easily, “says Elliott.

At a press conference in the report, Professor Stephen Riley of Imperial Infectious Disease Dynamics highlighted Facebook data showing reduced mobility shortly after Christmas and rising early New Year. This may help explain the decline in cases and then level off.

However, a new variant named B117, which appears in the southeast and is more contagious, is also thought to be causing more infections.

“The fact that we are blocked and are a stronger blockade than Blockade 2. [in November], But R is above 1, partly due to the transmission of the mutant strain, “said Riley.

The study was conducted as the UK recorded a sharp increase in coronavirus infection, reaching 38,905 on Wednesday, and then continuing to decline at the beginning of the week. The latest figures bring the total number of cases in the UK to 3,505,754.

Of the 5,070,365 vaccinations received in the UK so far, 4,609,740 were first doses, an increase of 343,163 from the previous day, according to government data up to 19 January. The second dose accounted for 460,625, an increase of 3,759 from the figures released the day before.

The 7-day moving average of the first dose given in the UK is currently 281,490. Based on the latest figures, an average of 399,625 initial doses will be required daily to reach the government’s goal of 15 million initial doses by February 15.

Riley said the vaccine deployment had “quite right” focused on the people at highest risk, but was least likely to spread the virus.

He said the vaccine would affect the spread of the virus and it would take “weeks or even months” to reduce new cases.