The origin of the coronavirus may remain a mystery as WHO leaves China with more questions than answers

Some experts have questioned the purpose of the World Health Organization’s coronavirus investigation mission to China. The mission ended this week after months of diplomatic tensions where it was unclear how the virus began.

A team of experts departed Wuhan, the epidemic city of the world, with many theories, leaving many questions unanswered as to how the world-changing pandemic first evolved. did.

The results of the preliminary survey 28 days later on the ground in Wuhan settled down to what was widely envisioned before the survey. The virus originated from bats and transmitted to humans either directly or through intermediate animals.

However, a third theory strongly promoted by the Chinese side, the theory that the virus started elsewhere and then arrived in Wuhan in the packaging of frozen imported foods, was also proposed by the joint mission.

Some people involved in the study personally describe it as a possible but unlikely scenario.

“It doesn’t really give us new information,” said Peter Corignon, an ANU pathologist who previously worked on a WHO research project.

“I know some of those experts, and I think they are very good, but they are limited to the information they are given, and even have them really hesitate to come. did.”

Some early theories were excluded

Since the outbreaks occurred simultaneously among patients from other parts of Wuhan, the original theory that the virus could have transmitted to humans from wildlife traded in the city’s South China wholesale market is largely excluded. it was done.

The most politically condemned theory that the virus leaked from the virus laboratory was considered too unlikely by a joint team of China and WHO.

“They quickly dismissed the possible unnatural origins that were expected given their political sensitivity to China as well as the world,” said Reina McIntyre, an infectious disease specialist at the University of New South Wales. I did. “

She questioned what evidence was presented to completely rule out the theory.

Thousands of tests on various animal species in China also failed to detect the virus and identify intermediate animals.

However, it was concluded that the coronavirus circulating in Wuhan was not detected before December 2019, and I frowned overseas.

Untested blood sample

Chinese scientists collecting WHO information did not test stored blood donation samples from Wuhan in 2019. This may indicate that the virus was previously present.

“Currently, serological data from the United States and Europe show that the virus was already prevalent in these regions by December 2019. It was not widespread before December. It doesn’t match WHO’s assumption that it was, “she said.

The first case of COVID-19 was not confirmed in the United States until January 2020.

But when the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tested blood donated to the Red Cross, They found that the disease probably reached the American coast as early as possible. December 13, 2019.

Dominique Dwyer, the only Australian member of the WHO team, said Chinese scientists “did a huge amount of work quickly” when they returned to Sydney for a two-week hotel quarantine. ..

He and his colleagues were presented with 76,000 case reports from more than 130 facilities in Wuhan to identify early cases.

However, the Chinese side said it disagrees with a team of experts suggesting testing blood donor samples stored in Wuhan from 2019, as testing older samples would be legally difficult.

“It would be very useful to be able to obtain blood samples from donors in 2019 and verify COVID-19 antibody levels individually,” Professor Corignon told ABC.

Where to go next for WHO research?

Even if the first outbreak was in Wuhan, the final report could take an additional year or more as the Chinese government is urging WHO to spend more time conducting further field surveys in other countries. ..

Peter Dazak, a member of a team of experts, told China’s national media that the next focus of the study would be Southeast Asia.

However, Hassen Valley, an epidemiologist at La Trobe University in Melbourne, believes it may be too late to understand the origin of the new coronavirus.

“I want to be pretty optimistic, but this is one of the areas I’m not quite expecting,” he said.

“If a serious incident occurs and you go there 12 months later, you will only be allowed access to the specific information that the person under investigation wanted to see in a very controlled way. Imagine that. “

The initial call for an independent international investigation by Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne has led to diplomatic backlash from Beijing and exacerbated existing tensions.

The Chinese government then agreed with the European Union’s proposal for a joint mission with WHO, and Beijing tightly controlled access to its own research.

However, although the final mission was far from Ms. Payne’s original proposal, the Morrison government promised to wait for the final report.

Dr. Valley said it’s good for scientists to pinpoint the exact moment of zero patients infected with COVID-19, but they can live without that information.

“It’s our disappointment not to dig as deep as possible into this catastrophic world event, and obviously it can shed some insight,” Dr. Valley said.

“But could it change our broader understanding of how pathogens emerge? Probably not.”