Health
Competition between variants and vaccines is intensifying. Can the bay area move on?
More troublesome coronavirus mutations have been discovered in California this week, intensifying competition between mutants and vaccines, despite increased vaccinations and many Bay Area counties relaxing public health restrictions. doing.
Wednesday public health authorities Confirmed first California proceeding A variant called P.1 that caused havoc in Brazil; was found in residents of San Bernardino County. They also published a fourth California case of a variant from South Africa. This is a case in Santa Clara County. The case was an individual who had never traveled anywhere recently and, at a very low level, raised concerns about the spread of variants to the community.
These two mutants are somewhat resistant to antibodies and can reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine. Meanwhile, three variants that are more infectious than previous versions of the virus are spreading rapidly throughout the state. Currently, two homemade variants account for more than half of all California cases.
There are concerns about the increase in variants, but it is not unexpected. In fact, variants are settling at a slower pace than public health and infectious disease experts feared, raising expectations that vaccination will keep them away. The fourth surge is not completely preventable, but it is likely not as devastating as the previous waves.
In other words, California and the Bay Area may be moving forward in the race.
“It’s not time to take your foot off the accelerator. You need to continue the course and increase the pressure on vaccination,” said Joe DeRisi, co-president of Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, a state and county public health agency for genomic sequencing. Stated. “But I’m still very optimistic. We’re heading in the right direction.”
Variants have been responsible for the huge surge in recent weeks, especially in parts of Europe, including the United Kingdom and Brazil. A more infectious variant from the United Kingdom called B.1.1.7 is the most common cause.
In a global situation, U.S. public health experts are worried about a potential fourth wave here, and in fact cases are beginning to stagnate and are increasing even in some parts of the country. I will. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that B.1.1.7 may dominate in parts of the country by the end of this month or early April.
But California is far superior to most other places. Subspecies are emerging more often, but not as widespread as experts have ever feared. The B.1.1.7 variant constitutes only about 1% of the cases sequenced in the state.
Cases of coronavirus throughout the state are decreasing weekly, though not as dramatically as at the beginning of the month. Hospitalization and daily cases have returned to October levels. The death toll is also decreasing. The winter surge is over.
The county is reopening with a fairly lively clip. Only 10% of the state remains in the most restrictive purple layer.Next week, three counties in the Bay Area (Marine, San Francisco, and Santa Clara) Join San Mateo County in the Orange Formation, The second least limited. It will allow them to expand their indoor dining and open family-friendly entertainment activities such as outdoor bars, music venues, and bowling alleys.
San Francisco officials say they will take a somewhat conservative approach, but most counties plan to allow all state-permitted activities. At a committee meeting on Tuesday, Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sarah Cody said she would begin all state-approved activities, but advised residents to pay attention. did.
“Just because something is open doesn’t mean it’s safe or a good idea,” Cody said. “We are still competing for the emergence of new variants and the ability to vaccinate. Everything else, such as not wearing masks, keeping distances, or gathering in the crowd. You still need to be careful. “
Santa Clara County has identified more cases caused by coronavirus variants than anywhere else in the Bay Area, but has performed far more genomic sequencing than its neighbors. The county found 15 cases of B.1.1.7 and 2 of 4 cases of subspecies states from South Africa.
All variants are partially concerned because they have mutations that make them more infectious to varying degrees than previous versions of the virus. British variants are considered to be up to 80% more infectious and can cause even more serious illness. By comparison, California variants can be about 10% to 20% more infectious.
Dr. Chris Farnitano, a health officer in Contra Costa County, is concerned about resumption, especially as more variants emerge, due to reports of case stagnation in New York City and a surge in parts of Europe. He said he was. His county discovered the first two cases of the B.1.1.7 variant this week.
“A month ago when they opened an indoor dining room in New York, the number of incidents hasn’t diminished since then,” he said. “We know there was another wave every time we opened in the past. Now the only difference is the vaccine, and as New York City shows, they’re still enough to push the case down. I don’t have a good vaccine. If it opens too early and these variants actually take root, there is still the risk that you may start losing the race. “
Sill, infectious disease, and public health experts say that enough people have already been vaccinated in California, with cases, and most importantly, signs of stopping hospitalization and death. Stated. About 23% of Californians have been vaccinated at least once. Especially in nursing homes, the number of cases that cause fatal outbreaks throughout the pandemic is rapidly decreasing.
Experts say California could see a fourth surge, but it’s far from catastrophic because the vaccine prevents the worst results.
“I get notified every time I die in the county, and last week was the first week I remember since last spring when I wasn’t notified of the dead. Seven days in a row,” said Marin County. Health officer Dr. Matt Willis said. “It may be another sign of what the new normal will look like.”
Erin Allday is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] twitter: @erinallday
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