Biden officials fear Israel's response to Iranian strikes could spark wider war

Iran's retaliatory attack on Saturday, which invaded Israeli airspace with hundreds of drones and missiles while causing relatively limited damage, was unprecedented, but calibrated to provide deterrence without provoking a total war, according to experts interviewed by NBC News.

Hours after the strike, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, issued a statement saying that the attack was over and that we were not prepared to continue it.

An Israeli official from the prime minister's office told NBC News on Sunday that Israel would consult with all its partners, but ultimately it was up to it to decide what the response would be.

Israel cannot allow an attack of this magnitude on Israel without some sort of response, whether small or large, the official said. It is up to the war cabinet to decide now.

U.S. officials had been expecting a response from Iran since Israel's April 1 bombing of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus. They raised questions not only about the severity of the threat, but also about how Israel would respond given an overall military strategy that a senior administration official and a senior defense official, referring to internal conversations, described in interviews with NBC News as poorly thought out, frenzied and with the potential for catastrophic escalation.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, second from right, during a war cabinet meeting on Sunday. Israeli Ministry of Defense / Anadolu via Getty Images

I don't think they had a strategy, the senior administration official told NBC News of Israel's bombing of Iran's diplomatic complex in Damascus. Israelis don't always make the best strategic decisions.

Israel views Iran as an existential threat and has clashed with previous U.S. administrations over how to handle the regime, which does not officially recognize the Jewish state. Most notably, Netanyahu openly lobbied against President Barack Obama's historic 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, from which his successor Donald Trump withdrew.

Iran, for its part, has been the target of a concerted campaign between the United States and Israel aimed at degrading its military capabilities, with attacks killing senior commanders who worked with proxy forces throughout the region and nuclear scientists in the country.

Sleepwalking into war?

Although the White House believes the Israelis are not seeking a broader conflict or direct war with Iran, especially given the resources they have to fight in Gaza, U.S. officials cannot be certain, said the senior administration official.

There is an urgent need to act, the official said, and that is what happened in Damascus, referring to the April 1 strike on the consular building that killed two generals and five officers of the Guards Corps. the Iranian revolution. The official said it was the same frustration that U.S. officials have with the way Israel operates in Gaza.

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations and Middle East politics at the London School of Economics, criticized Biden's ability to translate his concerns into influence over Israeli military decision-making.

The Biden administration's strategy has failed miserably. Biden is dragging the United States into another catastrophic war in the Middle East. Its overarching goal of preventing the war in Gaza from spreading to neighboring countries has failed, Gerges said. Biden failed to influence Netanyahu's decisions, neither in Gaza nor with regard to Iran.

President Joe Biden, accompanied by members of his national security team, Saturday. Adam Schultz/AP

Benjamin Friedman, policy director at the Defense Priorities think tank, said in a statement that the Israeli government had considered war with Iran, perhaps encouraged by the prospect of U.S. help in its pursuit of Iran.

Instead of talking about unwavering support for Israel, the president should have made clear that U.S. support is limited and does not extend to all circumstances, Friedman said. A war with Iran would jeopardize U.S. security with no obvious outcome.

Defense Priorities, based in Washington, advocates restraint in American foreign policy.

Regardless of the relative caution advocated by U.S. officials, a U.S. military official told NBC News that U.S. forces in the region continue to shoot down drones launched by Iran and targeting Israel. Our forces remain ready to provide additional defensive support and protect U.S. forces operating in the region.

In a statement released today, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the confrontation between Iran and Israel is not yet over. We must be prepared for all scenarios and label Iran a terrorist state.

For Iran, Amal Saad, a lecturer at the Faculty of Law and Politics at Cardiff University who specializes in the study of the Lebanese political movement and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, cautioned against interpreting the limited destruction caused by Iranian strikes as a reason to dismiss the country. intentions or willingness to enter into conflict with Israel if provoked.

The strikes, which closed schools and sent thousands of Israelis into bunkers as sirens blared, rockets streaked overhead and fighter jets roared, were deeply disruptive in Israel, and their The magnitude showed that Iran's strategic patience was exhausted, Saad said, referring to Iranian tactics. military restraint and deterrence.

A man holds a model of an artillery shell during a celebration in Tehran on Sunday in support of the Iranian attack on Israel. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Iran, Saad said, was humiliated by the Israeli bombing of its diplomatic complex, and national dignity is one of Iran's core values. It would have been impossible for Iran to absorb this type of humiliation, she added. This would mean that Iran is no longer Iran. New Israeli strikes could inflame an Iran already at its limits.

This desire was clearly underlined by Bagheri, Iran's military chief, in his statement that if Israel attacks our interests, we will respond with force and our next operation will be much bigger.

Ultimately, the Middle East appears to be descending into a wider regional war, said LSE's Gerges. For now, the ball is in Israel's court. Israel's next move will determine whether the region descends into further military escalation or de-escalation.

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