The rise of reform Britain could tempt Sunak to move further to the right. Let the Netherlands be a cautionary tale | Tarik Abou-Chadi and Simon van Teutem

A recent YouGov poll marks a pivotal moment in British politics. For the first time, the British Reform Party has been shown to lead the Conservatives among male voters. As Labor gains ground, the emergence of reforms will clearly be detrimental to the Conservatives. Overall, Tory support has declined to levels not witnessed since Liz Truss' term, with less than one in five voters intending to vote for them.

These changes are unique to the UK but reflect trends across the channel. It could join a growing number of European countries where the far right is overwhelming the mainstream right, including France, Italy and Sweden. But it is the Netherlands that should serve as a cautionary tale for Conservative politicians and advisers hoping to win back support for reform by moving further to the right.

In July 2023, outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte's centre-right Volkspartij voor Vrijheid (VVD) decided to break up the coalition, citing insurmountable conflicts over policies to manage and deter asylum seekers. I did. Soon after, the new party leader, Dilan Yeilgz-Zegerius, declared an end to the dark compromise on immigration and pledged, together with the far-right Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), to lift decade-old sanitary measures. Strengthen her resolve.

Immigration emerged as a central feature of the VVD party manifesto, featuring prominently in the title and first chapter. The manifesto contains numerous proposals targeting asylum seekers specifically, from intrusive phone checks to moves toward stricter accommodation provisions. By taking these steps, the VVD incorporated far-right ideology into mainstream political structures.

The rationale for the election seemed simple. If the VVD is seen to prioritize and adopt a harder stance on immigration, alienated voters will win back from its populist rivals. The Dutch wing of the British Tory Party thought they could beat the far right by imitating this. But this approach backfired spectacularly.

The far-right PVV scored an unprecedented victory in last November's Dutch election, more than doubling its vote share, while the VVD fell to third place after 13 years in power. As immigration has been pushed to the forefront, voters have chosen parties with original anti-refugee policies rather than copycats.

When Rishi Sunak became chancellor, he vowed to stop the boats and made sending asylum seekers to Rwanda a top priority. Sunak, off the coast of Dover, Kent, 5 June 2023. Photo: WPA/Getty Images

Sound familiar? The Conservative Party is following the same path. When Rishi Sunak became chancellor, he vowed to stop the boats and made sending asylum seekers to Rwanda a top priority. Last December, Home Secretary James Cleverly announced a five-point plan to reduce immigration. The government now reportedly wants to achieve the largest reduction in immigration numbers recorded before the election.

As the reforms gain ground, Sunak and his Conservative Party seem increasingly tempted to double down on their strict immigration policies to win over voters. However, this could be a serious mistake because the Dutch case is not a one-off. Studies have shown that support for the far right does not decline as mainstream political parties shift to the right on immigration issues. In any case, the far right wins because its positions and rhetoric are normalized. When immigration becomes salient, mainstream right-wing parties in particular lose more voters to the far right.

Moreover, as mainstream parties normalize the far right, other factors, such as party leaders, become more important when choosing party leaders. Geert Wilders, who served as a member of the Dutch National Assembly for 25 years and holds the position as the longest-serving party leader, skillfully maneuvered immigration and housing issues against the novice Yeilgz-Zegerius. Once again the parallels with England are striking. Nigel Farage has been roaming the halls of Brussels for decades, ready to capitalize on Sunak's mistakes. Farage was a founding member of the UK Independence Party (Ukip) while Sunak was still at school. In 2018, he founded the Brexit party, later renamed Reform UK, and stepped down from frontline politics in 2021. But a possible scenario where Farage returns before the next general election would be particularly threatening for the Tories.

Britain's first post system has always been seen as helping established political parties defend against the far right. As a result, voters in many seats in the upcoming election will still see a vote for reform as a wasted vote. But first, once you get past the post system, there is a turning point. Even if the Conservatives don't lose any seats on reform, Labor could win if they lose votes. This scenario, already visible in many predictions, could lead to the near eradication of the Conservative Party.

Even if the Conservatives maintain their lead on reform in this election, the next leader will face challenges from the far right both externally and internally. There is a real possibility that the Conservatives will mirror the fate of the American Republican Party by falling victim to figures like Farage within the party. The Conservatives' strategy makes those figures even bolder.

In more and more countries in Europe, far-right parties have become a major force on the right. Until very recently it seemed unlikely that the UK would be included on this list. If the Conservatives continue on their current trajectory, things could change faster than we think.

Tarik Abou-Chadi is Associate Professor of European Politics at Nuffield College, Oxford University. Simon van Teutem is a writer for De Correspondent and a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Oxford.

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