Why US-China relations are more stable than you might think

Quick shot from Ian Bremmer: Hi everyone. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken is currently in the Middle East. But he just came from China, from Beijing and Shanghai, and it's the relationship between the United States and China that I'm thinking about. I want to give you an overview.

It continues to be better managed and more stable than we've seen in a long time. It is not clear that this is necessarily the case, given the number of issues and points of friction between these two countries. Over the past two weeks, President Biden has imposed new tariffs on Chinese steel and opened a new investigation into Chinese shipbuilding. There is this anti-TikTok policy coming from the American Congress. You have $2 billion in additional military aid for Taiwan from the United States. You have also received a lot of criticism from the Americans regarding China's continued support, dual-use technologies for the Russians, allowing them to better fight the war in Ukraine.

Given all of this, is the relationship starting to become a lot more contentious? And the answer is not really. It is true that China's foreign minister has said that the Americans must choose between a relationship of containment and a relationship of partnership, and it is certainly true that the Americans would prefer to have it both ways. They want partnership in areas where it suits Americans, and containment in areas where it suits Americans. Americans get away with more than other countries because the United States is the most powerful country in the world, and ultimately the Chinese need Americans more than Americans need from China. There is, however, great interdependence and resilience. To what extent is China actually doing this? And the answer is that there has been very little direct retaliation from China, despite all the policies I just mentioned. It is true that overnight, the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared that resolute and forceful measures would be taken if the additional support for Taiwan, which constitutes a red line for the Chinese, was signed and that American aid to Taiwan was moving forward, and I suspect that means we're going to see more sanctions from China against U.S. defense contractors.

Much of it is symbolic. It's tit for tat. But regarding all the other policies that I mentioned that the Americans have just put in place against China, we have seen the Chinese focus on the need to make their country and their economy more resilient in the face of American containment efforts, but without retaliating, without calibrating, measures of sanctions or reciprocal investigations. In fact, the Chinese have been pretty stable.

Also. We saw that Xi Jinping always met directly with Secretary of State Blinken, a meeting that would be very easy for the Chinese government to cancel and which, historically, certainly would not have been present if there had been a lot of tension in relationships. They chose not to. And actually, Blinken went to a record store, you know, and he plays guitar and sings, and he loves music. And the coverage of this trip by Chinese state media has been very humanizing, very friendly, frankly, best coverage of an American secretary of state that I have ever seen since Xi Jinping has been in power. This is something that is very easy for the Chinese government to put its thumb on the scale if it wants to show that it is unhappy with the current state of relations with the United States. I think of Obama and the town hall he wanted to put in place and the Chinese who didn't want to give him the kind of coverage that Americans wanted at the time. You know, he's a lesser representative of the United States and he continues, frankly, to receive terrible treatment from the Chinese government. I think that matters a lot.

That said, this is a relationship that is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. And that's true because in the United States, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, one of the few things you can agree on in foreign policy is that there is an advantage to take to China. So US policy is not just about Biden making decisions himself, but also about members of Congress. These are the governors. It's about the media. Everyone takes their own photos. And they are not coordinated. Where China comes from, if Xi Jinping is willing, everyone has basically risen in the same direction. Today, many American companies and banks send their CEOs on trips to China. And there is much more engagement between the two countries, something Chinese officials are heavily focused on.

There is much more communication and cooperation on topics like climate, as well as in response to the US fentanyl crisis, where the Chinese are closing down laboratories and companies that export the chemical precursors. These things matter. They are committed. There is also a great willingness from the United States, at the highest level, to provide more information to China, just about what the Americans see happening around a confrontation in the Middle East that China would like to see. see a ceasefire. so would the Americans at this point. Additionally, the Chinese don't have many high-level diplomats or much ability to gather information like the Americans do. And when high-level Americans talk about the Middle East with their Chinese counterparts, the Chinese are very much in note-taking mode and appreciate that they are getting this information from the United States.

So overall, I continue to see very constructive high-level engagement. But we are up against a relationship that has virtually no trust and where the basis of conflict is going to appear in many different ways and in many different places around the world. Over time, it will become more difficult to maintain this stable floor in the U.S.-China relationship. But for now, I think we'll probably continue to see this, at least until the November election.

That's all for me. I will talk to you very soon.

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