Why Delta Variants Make Mask and Vaccine Obligations Essential

The rise of delta mutants has overturned previous optimistic predictions about herd immunity and return to normal life, and many health professionals will mask in the coming months to avoid a more serious coronavirus surge. We believe that our obligations and stricter vaccine requirements will be required.

Although there are promising signs that California’s fourth COVID-19 surge may be Starts to flattenAutumn and winter will bring new challenges, as people stay indoors more often and vaccine immunity begins to decline.

The rapid spread of the delta among unvaccinated people, and the still relatively small number of “breakthrough” cases among vaccinated people, helped that a significant increase in vaccination help stop the spread. is showing.In fact, authorities are currently preparing to offer Booster shot People who have already received the first series of vaccinations say they need additional doses to protect people.

Still, “the vaccine itself is probably not enough, and during times of increased infection, we need other tools available to protect us all, especially children at this time. “They are people who can’t be vaccinated like this,” said Dr. Kirsten Bibins, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. Domingo.

California has a relatively high vaccination rate, which gives it an advantage over other states and has little willingness to return to a stay-at-home order. However, in a more crowded environment, strategies that can be used to keep COVID-19 under control ensure that people are vaccinated, have a negative recent coronavirus test, or both. Bibbins-Domingo said.

“Sometimes the mask is turned off again as the transmission goes down. However, if you are in an environment where the virus is growing, it is wise to have another layer of protection and be prepared to become a mask. I think it is necessary, “said Bibin’s Domingo. “Frankly, I don’t think I’m going to throw away the mask altogether in the near future.”

Dr. Robert Kim Farley, a medical epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, said, “To overcome this pandemic, forced masking, vaccine requirements, and regular workplace tests. Such policies will be very important. ” Public health fielding school.

It was once thought that the community would reach a sufficiently high level as soon as 70% to 85% of the population was vaccinated. Herd immunity The threat of COVID-19 will be almost behind us. Well, “it’s out the window,” Bibins-Domingo said, and computer models suggest that the coronavirus is with us for a foreseeable future. “Almost certainly, we’ll be dealing with it this winter.”

During the period when the pandemic continues, New variant According to Bibin’s Domingo, the ability to adapt vaccines to them and the temporary measures that may be needed to curb the surge have been revealed.

There are several important factors that change what we previously understood about COVID-19 and emphasize how far the end of the pandemic is still.

first time Is the appearance of Delta variant — It is at least twice as infectious as its former predominant variant, Alpha, and can produce up to 1,000 times more viral load in the upper throat.

“The big challenge for Delta is that it is much more contagious than the original strain …. and in fact, this is the so-called R-naught shift rate, or the basic reproductive rate of the coronavirus, the La Jolla Institute. It could be an unprecedented change in terms of vaccine researcher Shane Crotty. For immunology, he said recently. forum At the University of California, San Francisco.

Originally, people infected with the coronavirus ancestral strain spread the coronavirus to an average of 2.5 other people. However, the Delta variant is estimated to spread to the other 5-8 people. This means that within 10 cycles of being infected with the virus, more than 60 million people will be infected, rather than less than 10,000, in a population that is not immune to the virus. Dr. Carlos Del Rio, an epidemiologist at Emory University, and an infectious disease expert said in a forum at the same University of California, San Francisco.

This is why mandatory vaccines are especially important. Employment place, Del Rio said. “I think the phrase we hear many times is” no jabs, no work. ” And I think mandates will make a big difference, “he said.

No. 2, Breakthrough infectious disease It is still uncommon for fully vaccinated people to become infected with COVID-19, but it is no longer uncommon. “I think vaccinated people are much safer than unvaccinated people, but they are not completely safe. In Delta, there are frequent breakthrough infections, so infections are seen. “I will,” said Del Rio.

A person vaccinated against a breakthrough infection can infect others with the virus, but he or she is more likely to get it in a fairly small number of days, Del Rio said. “Therefore, if you are vaccinated, your contribution to infection is much lower than if you were not.”

Therefore, it is important to wear a mask indoors. Del Rio said many infectious disease doctors did not stop masking indoors, even after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was not needed for fully vaccinated people.

Dr. Regina Chincio Kwon, Deputy Health Doctor at Orange County, said that people vaccinated against breakthrough infections are already ready to protect themselves from the virus and suffer from lung disease and hospitalization. He said he had a much milder illness because it could be avoided. However, without prior immunity, the virus can stay deep in the body, causing more serious illness and ultimately making breathing very difficult.

In April, Los Angeles County, fully vaccinated people accounted for 5% of all coronavirus cases. By July, they accounted for 30%. However, fully vaccinated people, who now make up 55% of the population of Los Angeles County at all ages, continue to be well protected from hospitalization.

Unvaccinated older people (aged 50 and older) are 12 times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated adults, and unvaccinated younger adults are more likely than fully vaccinated adults of that age group. You may also be hospitalized 25 times more.

Federal officials also say there is evidence that the effectiveness of vaccines to protect against mild and moderate illnesses declines over time. NS study The CDC announced on Wednesday that the effectiveness of the vaccine against late-spring and early-summer infections in adults in New York has dropped from 92% to 80%. However, efficacy for hospitalization was stable between 92% and 95%.

Reserve study According to Mayo Clinic, who reviewed the efficacy of the vaccine against infections in 80,000 vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals, it declined over time, reaching 76% to 42% of those vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It was found that in humans it decreased from 86% to 76%. According to Dr. CDC Director, the Moderna vaccine. Rochelle Walensky..

Reports from Israel and elsewhere also suggest that people who are first vaccinated with COVID-19 are at increased risk of serious illness, Warensky said.

Therefore, authorities have signaled a federal plan to provide COVID-19 booster shots to adults vaccinated with Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, waiting for a review by the Food and Drug Administration. September 20. People who have been vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson may also need a booster.

Decreased vaccine efficacy may mean that we need to start shifting our thinking from eradicating COVID and eradicating diseases to managing more diseases.

Finally, there is new evidence to emphasize that relying on past COVID-19 infections rather than vaccination can make people vulnerable to reinfection.

NS study Among those previously infected with the coronavirus before 2020, unvaccinated residents are more than twice as likely to be re-vaccinated to the coronavirus, according to a study conducted in Kentucky. I was infected.

And the latest data continue to show that unvaccinated people as a whole are very likely to become infected. In California, between August 9th and 15th, unvaccinated residents were infected at a rate of 51 cases for every 100,000 unvaccinated people per day.that is 6 times worse More than 7.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, which is the proportion of vaccinated people.

Unvaccinated children (some children are too young to qualify) are also at increased risk of illness if their family does not receive the shot. At Orange County Children’s Hospital, authorities are aware of the pattern that “children hospitalized with COVID are not vaccinated and their families are not vaccinated.”

Many coronavirus infections among school children “do not occur at school. They do occur at home. The greatest risk a child has is that his parents are not vaccinated,” Del Rio said. Stated.

Teens and young adults are one of the least likely to be vaccinated in LA County. While 73% of all county residents over the age of 12 have been vaccinated at least once, only 63% of the youngest adults aged 18-29 are at least partially vaccinated. About 65% of 16 and 17 years old, and 56% of 12 to 15 years old.

This pandemic, like all pandemics, will eventually end. However, it is difficult to control, and how it is done is likely to depend on human behavior, Delrio said.

“You will see a society where viruses are well controlled. [in places like] All children are going to school wearing masks and they never happen in Japan.And you will occur in a state like me [Georgia]Or, in Tennessee, there are school districts where children don’t use masks, “says Del Rio.

Barbara Ferrer, director of public health in LA County, said she was in favor of a targeted compulsory immunization policy, especially in situations where people are most at risk.

“This is the best tool to avoid returning to the horrific winter surge,” Feller said. “It’s entirely possible for us to end this pandemic, but it will be done as more people will be vaccinated.”