The stock market can still rise 13% this year, even with prospects of rate cuts dwindling, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

• Stocks could still perform well this year, even if the rate cuts are smaller than markets initially expected.

• Tom Lee of Fundstrat predicts that the S&P 500 index could reach 5,700 points by the end of the year.

• Stocks will be propelled higher by a strong economy and a general slowdown in inflation, he said.

Diminishing hopes for a Fed rate cut won't necessarily derail the stock market's upward trajectory through the end of the year, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat.

Lee, one of Wall Street's most optimistic forecasters, predicted the S&P 500 could climb to 5,700 by the end of the year, implying an additional 13% rise for the benchmark index . The market doesn't need a Fed rate cut to do well, he said in a recent interview with CNBCassuming the economy remains strong and inflation continues to cool.

The economy appears to meet these conditions so far, Lee added. Corporate profits look strong, with the S&P 500 on track to post at least 7% profit growth this quarter, according to Set of facts. Economic growth also remained resilient, with the economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in the first quarter, according to estimates from the Atlanta Fed.

And while the title inflation arrived hotter than expected in March, most components of the consumer price index actually showed annual price growth of around 2%, consistent with the Fed's long-term goal. Excluding auto, housing, energy and food prices, annualized inflation stood at 2.7% last month, Lee said, suggesting inflation is was cooling overall.

“We don't really need the Fed to do three cuts,” he added.

But the only risk facing stocks is higher-than-expected inflation, which would prompt the Fed to announce another rate hike, Lee warned.

“I think this is still an extreme scenario, but it would be the one that would shake the markets the most,” he said.

The high inflation figures have led investors to downgrade their outlook for a Fed rate cut this year, with stocks falling over the past week as markets reassess their expectations. Investors now expect only one or two reductions in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from six reductions planned earlier this year.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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