A new chapter with Prabowo – OpEd – Eurasia Review

As Indonesia anticipates a leadership transition with President-elect Prabowo Subianto set to take office, there is an urgent need to examine the trajectory of the country's foreign policy. The impending change raises the question of whether Prabowo's approach will maintain the existing foreign policy framework established by President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) or introduce significant changes. This thesis examines Prabowo's foreign policy priorities, with particular emphasis on key areas such as ASEAN, the South China Sea, US-China rivalries, relations with Australia and the New Zealand, economic policies and its interest in Russia. Ukrainian War. By analyzing these dimensions, we aim to highlight potential continuities or divergences in Indonesian foreign policy under Prabowo's leadership. This exploration is crucial to understanding Indonesia's evolving role in regional and global affairs amid an evolving geopolitical landscape.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto's foreign policy toward ASEAN, the South China Sea and the U.S.-China rivalry is expected to be a focal point of his administration's diplomatic agenda. Given Indonesia's historical role in promoting regional stability and cooperation within ASEAN, Prabowo is likely to prioritize strengthening intra-regional relations, strengthening economic cooperation, and resolving common security challenges. However, his approach to controversial issues such as the South China Sea disputes may deviate from the assertive stance taken by his predecessor, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). While Jokowi advocates respecting maritime rights and finding peaceful solutions through multilateral mechanisms, Prabowo's position on the issue remains unclear.

Regarding the rivalries between the United States and China, Prabowo could take a pragmatic approach aimed at balancing Indonesia's strategic interests between the two superpowers. Despite maintaining strong economic ties with China, Prabowo may seek to deepen Indonesia's security cooperation with the United States, particularly in areas such as maritime security and counterterrorism efforts. However, navigating the complex dynamics of the U.S.-China rivalry poses a challenge, and the extent to which Prabowo will prioritize one relationship over the other remains unclear. As Indonesia aims to maintain its position as a key player in the Asia-Pacific region, Prabowo's foreign policy decisions regarding ASEAN, the South China Sea and US-China rivalries will shape significantly impact Indonesia's diplomatic trajectory in the years to come.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto's approach to Australia and New Zealand should be pragmatic, focused on mutual interests and cooperation. Both countries are of strategic importance to Indonesia in terms of trade, investment and security. Prabowo could prioritize strengthening bilateral relations, particularly in the areas of economic partnership and defense cooperation. However, historical tensions and unresolved issues, such as maritime boundary disputes and human rights concerns, could challenge these relations. Prabowo's administration could seek to resolve these issues through diplomatic engagement and dialogue, aimed at fostering greater understanding and collaboration between Indonesia and its neighbors. Overall, while opportunities for cooperation exist, addressing these challenges will require careful diplomacy and a commitment to mutual respect and understanding.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto's economic policy is expected to maintain continuity with Jokowi's emphasis on economic development, infrastructure investment and attracting foreign investment. However, Prabowo could introduce adjustments to meet national priorities such as job creation, poverty reduction and industrial growth. These adjustments could lead to changes in trade policies and investment incentives, reflecting Prabowo's focus on addressing key socio-economic challenges facing Indonesia. Despite potential adjustments, Prabowo's economic agenda is likely to align with Jokowi's overarching goal of fostering the country's economic growth and development.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto's interest in the Russo-Ukrainian war presents both challenges and opportunities for Indonesian foreign policy. As a non-aligned country that has always advocated peaceful resolution of conflicts, Indonesia has the potential to play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability in the region. Prabowo could leverage Indonesia's diplomatic influence to encourage dialogue and mediation efforts, aiming for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. By engaging with relevant stakeholders and international partners, Indonesia can help ease tensions and facilitate a negotiated resolution to the crisis.

However, navigating the complexities of the Russo-Ukrainian war requires careful diplomacy and strategic decision-making. Indonesia must balance its commitment to peace and stability with its respect for the principles of sovereignty and non-interference. Prabowo's leadership will be crucial in guiding Indonesia's foreign policy approach to this conflict, ensuring that it aligns with the country's values ​​and interests while promoting regional and global stability.

In conclusion, President-elect Prabowo's foreign policy agenda will significantly influence Indonesia's role in the international arena and its relations with its major partners. While there may be areas of continuity with Jokowi's policies, such as ASEAN centrality and economic development, Prabowo's leadership could also introduce changes or adjustments to respond to emerging challenges and priorities. By carefully analyzing Prabowo's foreign policy priorities and approaches, Indonesia can navigate the complexities of the international landscape and effectively promote its national interests.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.

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