No Modi magic: BJP's bold demands clash with Kerala's political realities

Aman walks past the clippings of Prime Minister Narendra Modian and Union Minister and BJP candidate from Attingal constituency V. Muraleedharan, put up as part of an election campaign ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, in Thiruvananthapuram, Thursday, April 11, 2024. | Photo credit: PTI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often been criticized by his detractors for his radical statements. But even by his standards, he seemed to be opening himself up for ridicule when he said that in Kerala, thanks to the Modi ki guarantee, he would work to realize Kerala's dreams and that the state would give the BJP seats in two digits. the Lok Sabha election.

The famous Malayali sarcasm was not long in coming. Shashi Tharoor, Congress MLA for Thiruvananthapuram, said the two figures would be two zeros, leaving no room for the BJP's divisive politics in the state. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said the saffron party would not even come second in the 20 seats, let alone win even one seat.

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In 2019, the BJP's vote share was 12.93 percent, which fell to 11.3 percent in the 2021 assembly elections. But the party has identified five Class A constituencies, where the vote share is higher. Thiruvananthapuram holds around 31 per cent, Thrissur around 29 per cent and Attingal, Pathanamthitta and Palakkad hold around 20 per cent each.

BJP Keralaprabhari's Prakash Javadekar reiterated that the party would win at least five seats, and BJP state secretary and Kozhikode candidate MT Ramesh said the figure was arrived at based on national surveys, although he did not reveal what those seats were. WhenFirst linehe asked her.

The public response is positive, with a pro-Modi wave on the ground, Ramesh said. According to him, both the ruling and opposition Fronts campaigned against Modi, which helped create pro- and anti-Modi polarization.

Former Ernakulam MP Sebastian Paul said the BJP was out of touch even in the selection of candidates in Kerala. He explained: Thiruvananthapuram constituency is full of contradictions; here in the past VK Krishna Menon won and so did Congress A. Charles, who was not even a known face when he first contested in 1984. But it doesn't seem like Rajeev Chandrasekhar has a high profile that will attract constituents. He speaks Malayalam like a non-native, although this is also true for Tharoor. Pannyan Raveendran, the Left candidate, has links with the fishing community and other grassroots stakeholders.

According to Sebastian Paul, BJP candidate from Thrissur, Suresh Gopi, started with a big show but failed to maintain the momentum. The actor and politician is embroiled in a controversy over the purity of the gold in a crown he placed on a statue of Mary at the Notre-Dame de Lourdes Metropolitan Cathedral in his constituency. It's not clear whether he has the star value needed to excite the people of Thrissur, he said. In Kerala, the only winning actors are Innocent and Mukesh; even Mammootty and Mohanlal know that they won't be able to vote, that's why they avoid politics. I don't think Suresh Gopi will be able to make an impact. At the last minute, the vote in Kerala will be highly political and anti-BJP.

In Pathanamthitta, Anil Antony, son of former chief minister and defense minister in the UPA government, AK Antony, was chosen as the saffron party candidate. His candidacy appears to be a miscalculation, because even though the BJP is after the Christian vote in Pathanamthitta, it is not clear whether Antony's family are practicing Christians, and even if they are, they are Catholics , but the denomination of this constituency consists of Orthodox and Marhomites, Sebastian Paul said.

Although the BJP's campaign in the state began with Christian outreach, observers say the party has not made much progress on this front.

Kerala's demographic profile is about 46 percent Christian and Muslim minorities, a senior journalist said. Their conscious push was directed towards the Christian community. But instead of seeking, at the political level, to establish links with Christian parties like the Kerala Congress-Mani or Joseph [groups], they were trying to establish a direct bridge with bishops and clergy, on an individual and collective basis. An indirect impact has been the recent selection by the Idukki DioceseHistory of Kerala. But the Manipur violence has had a significant impact, particularly among ordinary Christian voters.

failed strategy

Sebastian Paul said the BJP's strategy of creating a divide would not work in Kerala on many levels. The BJP's strategy was to create a divide between Christians and Muslims. They were successful to some extent in creating anti-Muslim sentiment among Christians, and this section also had a leaning towards the BJP. But that has now changed. During Easter Holy Week, bishops openly opposed the party, he said, speaking of Good Friday sermons delivered by Archbishop Thomas J. Netto, the Latin Catholic archbishop of Thiruvananthapuram, and Mar Thomas Tharayil, bishop auxiliary of the archdiocese of Changanassery. The sermons spoke about attacks on Christians in various parts of the country and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

This is no small feat and this is no ordinary sermon. This would be valid during the voting process. Even Kerala Hindus are not the Hindutva type that the BJP visualizes. They are very liberal, progressive and tolerant, just like the historical definition of Hindus. Their ideology won't sell here, he said. The BJP's sights are not on Kerala's 20 seats; they have their eyes on North India. They can claim that the children of two former Kerala chief ministers, K. Karunakaran and AK Antony have now joined the party. This creates a significant impact in the North.

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Professor Sunil P. Ilayidom, a writer and social observer, said the issue of women's entry into the Sabarimala temple had created some inclination towards the BJP in the last Assembly elections. In 2019, the saffron party managed to take control of some communities, but due to some current issues, such as electoral bonds, CAA and ED raids, I doubt they will have much attraction. It does not appear that the BJP is improving its vote share. They managed to put up a tough fight in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram, but they are unlikely to win even these seats. They spent a lot of money on the campaign and managed to create an impact, meeting people and getting vehicles on the road, he said.

According to Sebastian Paul, even at the national level, the BJP is facing a loss of popularity and Modi is also not mentioning the 400 seats anymore. In the past, they would simply say that they would open an account in Kerala; they made no claims beyond that. When they say they will win by double digits in Kerala, it just shows that they know nothing about the state. People took the issue of citizenship very seriously. Even more so than during the state of emergency, when there were restrictions on freedom of expression, constitutional issues are now causing great concern. I experienced this at a recent meeting in a village near Kalady, when for the first time since 1952 people discussed the future of parliamentary democracy in these elections, he said. -he declares.