Donald Trump's jury could be a problem for Alvin Bragg

The 12-person jury in former President Donald Trump's hush money case is in place and is expected to have a big impact on the proceedings as both sides could begin making their arguments next week.

Seven men and five women are participating in the historic trial that began Monday with jury selection in New York. New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan hopes five alternate jurors will be finalized Friday to begin deliberations Monday as presumptive Republican presidential nominee faces 34 counts of falsifying records commercial claims regarding a payment made to an adult film star during his campaign for the 2016 presidential election.

Trump's accusations stem from money paid to Stormy Daniels during her first run for the White House. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg accuses the former president of trying to conceal potentially unfavorable information from American voters. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and maintains he never had an affair with Daniels.

Since the jury has more men than women, this perhaps gives Trump better prospects given that men are generally more likely to support him than women.

Former President Donald Trump speaks to the press before entering the courtroom during his trial for allegedly concealing secret money payments related to extramarital affairs, at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York the… Former President Donald Trump speaks to the press before entering the courtroom. courtroom during his trial for allegedly concealing secret money payments related to extramarital affairs, at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on April 19. A panel of 12 jurors was sworn in April 18 for the unprecedented criminal trial of a former U.S. president. More from SARAH YENESEL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

A poll of 806 registered New York voters conducted Feb. 12-14 by the Siena College Research Institute showed that 50 percent of men feel favorable toward Trump, compared to just 28 percent of women.

Among those surveyed, 49 percent of men and 29 percent of women expressed support for Trump in this year's election, including 14 percent of men who said a conviction of Trump would make them more likely to support him. About 10 percent of women said the same thing.

But New York City is more liberal than the state.

Exit polls from the 2020 Biden-Trump election showed 76% support among New York City residents for Biden, according to CNN, about 18 points more support than received by Biden in areas like upstate New York and the Hudson River Valley.

The numbers declined from 76 percent to 72 percent among the city's male voters alone.

Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a legal analyst and former Manhattan chief deputy district attorney, told Newsweek via email that, as in any trial, the jury is more important than the prosecutor and judge.

“It’s about the jury because the jury, and the jury alone, decides the facts and decides whether a defendant is guilty or not guilty,” she said. “The jury and the jury alone, if a prosecutor has proven every element of every crime beyond a reasonable doubt.

“The judge informs the jury of the legal standards that must be applied to the facts, but it's the jury all the way. They're the whole show.”

It remains to be seen whether the gender disparity within this jury will have an impact.

“Juries are unpredictable and the prosecution has to hold the table to get a conviction here,” New York-based attorney Brad Moss told Newsweek by email. “However, the current composition of the jury appears to be a good reflection of the population of Manhattan, and expectations that broader political trends alone will influence their decision are pure speculation. People take jury duty seriously .”

A Yahoo! A news survey of 1,746 U.S. adults conducted between April 11 and 15 found that women were more likely to consider falsifying business records to conceal money payments to a porn star as a “crime.” serious”, more numerous than men, from 62% to 51%.

Men surveyed in the same survey were much more likely to view Trump's other alleged crimes, including possessing classified documents and attempting to overturn the 2020 election, as serious crimes.

Jay Oliver, a conservative political commentator and host of LI News Radio, told Newsweek that Bragg was not disadvantaged by the jury because he had the ultimate advantage: The case was being tried in Manhattan.

“Donald Trump said a long time ago that he no longer considers New York his home, it’s now Florida,” Oliver said. “That being said, New York is pro-Democratic, and New York even more so.

“Regardless of how many men and women are on the jury, there's still a lot of disgust in general about the former president. It's still about the evidence and convincing 12 people to do the right thing. The legal process once is at back in the spotlight.”

Denny Salas, a political strategist and senior vice president at New York-based Gotham Government Relations, disagrees, but for a different reason.

“We know that social attitudes have evolved around traditional views on sex work, and his defense attorneys only need one juror to raise reasonable doubt,” Salas told Newsweek via email . “Additionally, we have seen polls in recent years in which men tended to favor Donald Trump in the presidential election.

“We could see Trump's lawyers draw on their empathy around government intrusion into someone's personal life as a strategy. The key for Bragg will be to present a strong case that focuses on the crime itself , with hush money being the illegal act, not the underlying reason for the payment.

Updated 4/19/24, 2:24 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to reflect the disparity between men and women in the jury pool.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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