who wins six months from the end?

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Donald Trump has a small lead over Joe Biden in polls in critical states six months before American voters elect their next president on November 5.

It's a stunning reversal for Trump, who left the White House in 2021 with a record approval rating of 29 percent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 in the aim of overturning his electoral defeat.

More and more registered voters now view Biden's presidency as a failure compared to Trump's. According to a recent CNN poll, 55% of US respondents said Trump's presidency was a success, compared to 39% for Biden.

Biden's approval rating has fallen 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35% in April, according to Pew Research.

Still, the 2024 election appears to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 election, where just 43,000 votes out of 155 million cast carried Biden to victory.

Six months from the end, here is where the race stands.

What are the polls saying right now?

National polls were close. Trump and Biden are both polling at just over 40 percent, with Trump currently holding a slight 0.8 percentage point advantage, well within the bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEights averages. Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr gets around 10 percent of the vote in polls, although support for these candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polls than in actual elections.

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But U.S. presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Instead, they are decided by winner-take-all contests in all 50 states, which send voters to the Electoral College. The candidate who obtains 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In seven key states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden by one to six points.

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What are the questions that will decide the elections and who will lead them?

The top priority for American voters remains the economy, an issue that has strengthened Trump against Biden.

Overall, 41% of voters trust Trump on the economy, compared to just 35% for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 percent of registered voters called the economy extremely important to their vote, more than any other issue and close to levels not seen since October 2008.

While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views on the economy also play a role. Among those who said the economy was bad, 41 percent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 percent spoke of lower inflation and 14 percent cent of an improvement in their personal finances.

Other major issues include immigration, where polls suggest voters think Trump is more competent than Biden, as well as protecting democracy, preserving abortion rights and reducing health care costs. health. Biden is stronger on the bottom three.

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Most Americans don't vote based on foreign policy. But voters still said they thought the United States was spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to a monthly FT-Michigan Ross poll. This could help Trump.

Although Trump has not said he would cut funding to either country, the former president has made it clear that he expects other European countries to increase their defense spending when It's about countering Russia. Republicans also blocked congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries, before relenting in mid-April after months of stalemate.

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Perhaps even more important than these questions is how voters perceive Biden and Trump as people.

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is in better physical and mental shape than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically during his term. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62% of registered voters said they were not confident that Biden was mentally up to the task, compared to 59% who said they were not sure Trump would act ethically. .

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Trump faces four criminal indictments, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in all four cases, according to a Politico Magazine poll /Ipsos. And 24% of registered voters who support Trump say that if the former president is convicted, they might reconsider, according to a CNN poll.

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Who received the most money and where is it spent?

Biden overwhelmingly outpaced Trump in the race for money, leaving Biden groups $66 million more than Trump groups at the end of March.

Trump's coffers have been emptied by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76 million to Trump's lawyers since January 2023, or 26% of the total raised for the ex-president.

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Biden's campaign has already spent more than $39 million on ads this year, according to AdImpact, compared to Trump's $25 million. But much of Trump's ad spending went into the presidential primary, as he battled well-funded Republican challengers including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden super Pac that can raise unlimited amounts of money, has already set aside $130 million in ads starting in September, targeting all seven swing states and Nebraska's lone electoral vote in Omaha.

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