Russian Prisoner Exchange: Turkey's Diplomatic Coup

The historic East-West prisoner swap, organized by Ankara on Thursday, marked the triumphant return of Turkish diplomacy to the international stage, despite quarrels with its NATO allies.

US President Joe Biden thanked Turkey for participating in the largest East-West exchange since the Cold War involving two dozen prisoners, including a high-ranking Russian intelligence colonel and a hitman, all gathered on the tarmac of Ankara airport.

“Turkey has succeeded in a diplomatic gamble,” said Sinan Ulgen, a research associate at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

Turkish presidential spokesman Fahrettin Altun revealed that “Turkish intelligence has established channels of communication and mediation,” showing that Turkey “is able to talk with different parties as a trustworthy and reliable partner.”

Months of secret negotiations leading to the deal “demonstrate the importance of Turkish diplomacy,” Ulgen added, with Ankara “acting as a facilitator or mediator in conflicts between its neighbors, particularly between Russia and the West.”

“This initiative gives Turkey diplomatic prestige,” he said, as Ankara often strays from its traditional Western allies in the Middle East and Israel, “given its strong support for Hamas.”

– 'Unsung hero' –

Turkey has often presented itself as a mediator in the war in Ukraine, across the Black Sea, and in Gaza, highlighting its influence as a Muslim giant and staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause.

While Turkey's vehement rhetoric against Israel has undermined its involvement in Gaza peace talks – with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “Nazi” – Turkey could have been a key broker in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Ankara has maintained ties with Moscow and kyiv since the start of the war – and remains the only government to have hosted the rivals’ top diplomats, Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba, in March 2022. Erdogan has remained in direct contact with Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.

Turkey also brokered a UN-backed deal to lift the Russian blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in 2022 and allow their safe passage across the Black Sea.

Erdogan had previously mediated a prisoner exchange in September 2022 between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the release of 215 Ukrainian prisoners and the return of commanders of Ukraine's besieged Azov Brigade from Mariupol.

But the Kremlin stressed Friday that any negotiations with Ukraine would be “completely different” from Thursday's exchange.

By publicizing its key role, “Turkey is essentially signaling that, yes, some of its NATO allies, including the United States, may disagree with Ankara in some areas, but in other key areas, Turkey is crucial,” said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

– Master spy –

“Turkey is the unsung hero of (Thursday's) prisoner swap,” said Lucian Kim, Ukraine analyst for Crisis Group.

“Ankara facilitated the exchange thanks to the close ties Erdogan has maintained with the Kremlin despite his NATO membership and quiet support for Ukraine,” Kim said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan praised the role played by the MIT intelligence agency, of which he was once the director, in the exchange. The former head of Turkey's secret service promised that Turkey would “continue to be at the center of peaceful diplomacy, in line with the vision of our president.”

Turkey’s diplomatic ambitions extend well beyond its immediate neighbors. Turkey is also trying to play a mediating role in African conflicts. Fidan will meet Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa on Saturday, where Turkey is pushing for peace talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, researcher Ulgen said.

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