India will have to adapt to a new White House

This is why the last Indian prime ministers, despite certain differences with the United States, have invested in relations with the United States. And that’s why South Block will be watching the election outcome closely.

There is more to the US administration's approach to India than the oft-discussed question: Is the president or a particular cabinet member pro- or anti-India? It is a mixture of several interacting elements. These include the director and the prism through which he or she views the world. This shapes the personnel they appoint, the priorities the administration pursues, and the policies that come to fruition.

The outcome of the elections is important because the nature and combination of elements that emerge will be different. Structural factors are undoubtedly important, and a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump administration might even share some top ideas. But their specific bilateral, regional and global approaches will differ in areas that will affect India. For example, even if great power rivalry persists, Harris and Trump will not have the same approach towards their allies and partners, nor the same vision of Sino-Russian relations. However, even if the reduction in risks persists, the combination of relocation, nearshoring and friendshoring will be different.

A big question for Delhi, whoever the candidate is, will be how much of the Biden administration's worldview and approach they will maintain, particularly vis-à-vis China and Indo -Peaceful. The Biden years have been transformative for India-US relations, particularly in the areas of defence, economic security and technology. And Delhi will want to see this continue.

This relates to an overarching point: while Indian policymakers will care about Harris or Trump's approach to bilateral relations and minilateralism (particularly the Quad), the China policy of future administrations could carry weight. even more important in their calculations. For what? Because of India's own rivalry with China and the extent to which strategic convergence has boosted Indo-US cooperation and prompted both countries to manage their differences.

With a possible Harris administration, questions will revolve around the extent of policy continuity or change from the Biden administration, particularly given the likely change in senior staff. The questions that will interest India will be whether and how it prioritizes the Indo-Pacific; to what extent its approach to China remains competitive; the desire to deepen cooperation with India in key areas and geographies (including West Asia and Africa); his approach to the Russia-Ukraine war; the way in which differences, for example on Bangladesh, are managed; and the extent to which a Harris administration will focus on the values ​​pillar of the relationship. The latter point was also an Indian concern regarding the new Biden administration four years ago.

With a possible Trump administration, Delhi hopes to take a competitive approach to China as it did after the summer of 2017 and continue related Biden initiatives (even if renamed). He also likely believes Trump would end the Russia-Ukraine war more quickly and hopes he won't focus on the state of Indian democracy and human rights (even though his Christian voters evangelicals care about religious freedom in India).

Delhi, however, will be concerned about its volatility and transactionalism. Questions will include whether Trump will seek a deal with Xi Jinping because of his own preferences or those of his backers, and the extent of his commitment to ensuring a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific and to compete with China on the global stage. . Additionally, India will face possible tariffs, an emphasis on offshoring rather than friendly offshoring, the uncertain fate of G2G cooperation in clean energy, and a possible reluctance towards technological cooperation or a higher price. Stricter immigration policies related to high-skilled visas, work permits for international students or undocumented Indian migrants will also be of concern.

Any particular preference by Indian policymakers for one or the other outcome will depend on their own priority issue. But the type of outcome will affect the approach India takes and the adjustments it will have to make not only towards the president and various US stakeholders, but also towards other powers.

The author is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.