Politics
Indonesian GDP growth slows to 4.95%, estimates missing
(November 5): Indonesia's economic growth slowed last quarter as a wave of factory closures and job cuts weakened consumption and investment, underscoring the challenges facing new President Prabowo Subianto .
Gross domestic product grew 4.95% in the three months through September from a year earlier, below the 5% median estimate by 32 economists in a Bloomberg survey. This was the slowest quarterly pace since the 4.94% expansion recorded in the same period a year ago.
Subianto aims to boost growth by up to 8% during his five-year term leading Southeast Asia's largest economy. Although Indonesia's growth is among the fastest in the region, cracks appearing in the manufacturing sector could endanger employment and consumer spending, key to an estimated $1 trillion economy.
Labor-intensive industries, particularly clothing and footwear, are suffering from a sharp decline in foreign demand and an influx of cheaper imports flooding the domestic market. The sector has seen a growing number of factory closures and debt overhang, such as at textile giants PT Sri Rejeki Isman, also known as Sritex, and PT Pan Brothers.
In October, Indonesia's job losses rose 31% from last year to nearly 60,000, according to data previously released by the Labor Ministry. Manufacturing activity has also contracted for four straight months, its longest decline since at least 2021, according to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index.
This comes at a precarious time when many Indonesians have yet to return to formal employment after the pandemic. About 9.5 million people have disappeared from the country's middle class, a key driver of domestic consumption that accounts for more than half of GDP.
The government unveiled a number of measures in response, including extending tax benefits for home purchases and imposing import duties to protect the local market.
Bank Indonesia also began lowering its benchmark interest rate to support spending and investment, but its easing campaign was suspended due to currency volatility. At the same time, banks have expanded their incentives to lend to labor-intensive businesses.
Indonesia will need to reorient its industrial policy toward developing export-oriented service industries for the economy to grow beyond 5 percent, Citigroup Inc. economist Helmi Arman wrote in a published note Tuesday. Refining crude metals onshore, a priority of Prabowo and his predecessor Joko Widodo, helped boost growth but did not create enough jobs, he said.
Service exports like tourism require more labor and can generate more currency conversions, Arman said. However, government programs have not yet focused on this point.
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